Latest GB Voting Intention (7-10 June 2024)

June 10, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research

Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll, our fourth since the UK General Election was called for 4 July, finds the Labour Party leading by 26%, three points more than in our previous poll released on Thursday last week

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (19%) is unchanged from our previous poll and ties the lowest ever in our polling in this Parliament, in addition to being the joint-lowest since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.

Only once in the 2019-2024 Parliament did the Conservatives record as low a vote share as they have in our last two polls: 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Liz Truss announced her resignation.

Conversely, at 17%, Reform UK achieve their joint-highest vote share in our polling to date, tying the 17% they achieved last week.

Our poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 10,000 voters across Great Britain from Friday 7 June to Monday 10 June, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 5-6 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 45% (+3)
Conservative 19% (–)
Reform UK 17% (–)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-2)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 23%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 9% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 2% of those who voted Labour.

Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 

Only 40% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will now vote Conservative again. 27% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they will vote for Reform UK—just two points below the highest ever figure in our polling—while 18% will vote for Labour.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys a 20-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 27-point lead among women.

40% of men say they will vote for Labour, while marginally more men say they will vote Conservative (20%) than say they will vote for Reform UK (17%).

42% of women say they will vote for Labour. 15% of women say they will vote Conservative, while 13% say they will vote Reform.

Support for Reform UK and for the Conservatives is notably higher among men (37% combined) than it is among women (28% combined). Notably, women are six points more likely to be undecided about how they would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow (12%) than men are (6%).

Breaking down our sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 42 points among those aged 18-24 (50% vs 8%) to nine points with those aged over 65 (33% vs 24%).

Reform UK beats the Conservatives into third place with voters aged 45-54 (16% to 15%) and 55-64 (19% to 18%), while also attracting the support of almost one-fifth (19%) of voters aged over 65.

61% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select immigration (37%), housing (24%), and policing and crime (17%).

Following controversy over his decision to leave D-Day commemorations in Normandy early last week, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -27%, down ten points from last week, and the lowest approval rating Sunak has ever recorded in our polling as either Prime Minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer (surpassing the -26% he recorded on 25 February this year).

This week’s poll finds 26% approving of his overall job performance (-4) against 53% (+6) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +12%, up one point from last week. 41% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+1), while 29% disapprove (–).

Finally, Keir Starmer (47%, +3) leads Rishi Sunak (26%, -1) by 21 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment

This latest result is both the widest lead Starmer has ever held over Sunak on this question and the joint-lowest percentage of respondents to say Rishi Sunak would be better than Keir Starmer that we have recorded in our tracker polling.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

Share this research:

Our Most Recent Research