Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 4%, two points less than in last week Wednesday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 1 June in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 38% (-1)

Conservative 34% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)

Green 7% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party again leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 19% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (+6), including 21% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (+11) and 6% of those who voted Labour (–). Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 57% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote the same way.

Yesterday’s sample has 47% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (+4). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (68%, +8) are significantly more likely than those who voted Labour (44%, +3) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (57%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, slightly ahead of healthcare (52%). Respondents also select education (32%), housing (27%), taxation (24%), and immigration (23%).

A plurality (30%, +4) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 23% expect a Conservative Party majority (+1), 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (-1), and 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government (-3).

The Government’s net competency rating is -31% in this week’s poll, one point lower than last week. Altogether, 17% find the Government competent (-3), 48% find the Government incompetent (-2), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (+4).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -23%, increasing by one point since Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds 49% disapproving of his overall job performance (-2), against 26% approving (-1).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -12%. 27% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (-2), while 39% disapprove (-1).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -4%. 27% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (+2), while 31% disapprove (–). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (-2).

Keir Starmer (37%, -1) leads Boris Johnson (31%, -2) by 6% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 27% say Rishi Sunak (-1) and 32% say Boris Johnson (+1) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 40% say they don’t know (-1). 

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 49% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister while 26% say Rishi Sunak. 

Between Boris Johnson and Foreign Minister Elizabeth Truss, 35% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister, rising to 56% of those who voted Conservative in 2019. 22% meanwhile, including 17% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 think Liz Truss would be the better Prime Minister.

Finally, Keir Starmer (37%, -2) stands ahead of Rishi Sunak (30%, -1) on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.