Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 10%—an increase of 2% from last week’s poll, and the largest lead for the Conservative Party over Labour since 15 May 2020. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 44% (–)

Labour 34% (-2)

Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Green 5% (+1)

Reform UK 2% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 9%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 7% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 6% of those who voted Labour, and 12% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 51% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (70%) than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (50%). The notable difference in likelihood to vote between those who would vote for Labour and those who would vote Conservative accounts for roughly half of the Conservatives’ lead over Labour.

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have widened somewhat: 41% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 2% from last week) against 27% who think Labour (down 1%). Those who say they would now vote Conservative are still substantially more confident of a Conservative victory (87%) than those who say they would now vote Labour are confident of a Labour victory (72%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -2% in this week’s poll––the same as last week’s poll. Altogether, 33% find the Government incompetent (down 1%), 31% find the Government competent (also down 1%), and 26% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent.

For the ninth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +15% (up 4% from last week). This week’s poll finds 47% approving of his overall job performance, against 32% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating is relatively unchanged, with this week’s poll finding it at +29% (down 2%). 48% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 19% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stand at +2%, a repeat of last week’s result (tied for the second lowest approval rating ever for Keir Starmer). 29% approve of his job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 27% disapprove. A notable plurality (36%) of members of the public neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 48% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer. Meanwhile, 28% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson. This latest result is broadly similar to last week’s result.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (50% to 28%), ‘can build a strong economy’ (50% to 26%), ‘is a strong leader (47% to 27%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (46% to 26%). For the fifth week in a row, Boris Johnson holds a lead against Keir Starmer as best embodying someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (36% to 33%).

Last week, the public was evenly split on the question of who ‘represents change,’ but Boris Johnson now leads here too (40% to 34%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead only when it comes to best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (39% to 32%).

Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (44%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (29%).

Rishi Sunak holds a 12% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a marginal 1% decrease from last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 41% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 29% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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