Latest GB Voting Intention (5-6 June 2024)

June 6, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll, our first since Nigel Farage announced he was becoming leader of Reform UK and would be standing in the General Election, finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, three points down from our previous poll released on Monday

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (19%) ties the lowest ever in our polling in this Parliament and is the lowest since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.  

Only once in the 2019-2024 Parliament did the Conservatives record as low a vote share: 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Liz Truss announced her resignation.

Conversely, at 17%, Reform UK achieve their highest vote share in our polling to date.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 31 May – 2 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 42% (-4)
Conservative 19% (-1)
Reform UK 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+2)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 21%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 4% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 73% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 8% of 2019 Labour voters will now vote for the Liberal Democrats, 6% will vote Green, and 4% each will vote for the Conservatives and Reform UK. 

Only 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will vote Conservative againthe joint-lowest percentage we’ve ever recorded (tying 16 October 2022) and the lowest since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.

29% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they will vote for Reform UK—the highest ever figure in our polling—while 19% will vote for Labour and 5% will vote for the Liberal Democrats.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys a 19-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 24-point lead among women.

37% of men say they will vote for Labour, while marginally more men say they will vote Reform (19%) than say they will vote Conservative (18%).

39% of women say they will vote for Labour. 15% of women say they will vote Conservative, while 12% say they will vote Reform.

Support for Reform UK and for the Conservatives is notably higher among men (37% combined) than it is among women (27% combined). Notably, women are six points more likely to be undecided about how they would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow (13%) than men are (7%).

Breaking down our sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 42 points among those aged 18-24 (50% vs 8%) to 11 points with those aged 45-54 (33% vs 22%).

Reform UK attracts almost a fifth of the vote (19%) among each of the three oldest age groups—45-54, 55-64, and 65+—but enjoys the support of only 7% of those aged 18-24. Reform’s vote share is marginally higher than the Conservatives’ among those aged 55-64 and 65+.

56% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select immigration (39%), housing (24%), policing and crime (17%), and benefits (17%).

Keir Starmer (44%, -2) leads Rishi Sunak (27%, +1) by 17 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment

On Tuesday night, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer clashed in the first televised debate of the General Election campaign on ITV.

In polling conducted for The Independent, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies asked those who watched or read about the debate who they thought had won. 

Overall, 38% thought Keir Starmer won the debate against 32% who thought Rishi Sunak won it. As many as a quarter (25%) of those who followed the debate think neither Sunak nor Starmer won it.

The BBC are hosting another TV debate on Friday between the representatives of seven parties.

Reform UK, Plaid Cymru, and the Green Party will be represented by their leaders, while Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Leader in Westminster, will represent his party.

Neither Rishi Sunak nor Keir Starmer  will be present at the debate, with Penny Mordaunt and Angela Rayner representing their respective parties instead.

However, 62% of voters agree that Sunak and Starmer should agree to participate in TV debates with the other political party leaders

Altogether, when asked to rate their level of familiarity with a selection of leading national political figures—including the participants of tomorrow’s seven-way BBC debate—and what they stand for, majorities say they are ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ familiar with Rishi Sunak (74%), Keir Starmer (66%), and Nigel Farage (60%) and what they stand for.

Pluralities of voters say they are ‘not at all’ familiar with the Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey (37%), with Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner (36%), and with the Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (42%).

Majorities say they are ‘not at all’ familiar with Daisy Cooper (63%), who is standing in tomorrow’s debate for the Liberal Democrats, with new SNP Leader John Swinney (54%) and the SNP’s Leader in Westminster Stephen Flynn (59%), and with Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorweth (70%).

In terms of favourability of the same set of individuals, British voters give Keir Starmer a net favourability rating of +11%, while everyone else, including Rishi Sunak (-19%) and Nigel Farage (-7%), earns negative net favourability ratings.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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