Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 12%, one point higher as in Thursday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 31 August in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 43% (+1)
Conservative 31% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
Green 6% (-1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 10%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 18% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 17% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while just 59% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 46% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (59%) are 10 points more likely than those who voted Labour (49%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
After weeks of intense media focus on rising energy bills and the cost-of-living crisis, the economy (68%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (59%). Respondents also select education (34%), taxation (24%), Housing (23%), and the environment (23%).
A plurality (29%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, while 21% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating is -47% this week—a record low in our polling— down 7 points from last Sunday’s rating of -40%. Altogether, only 12% find the Government competent (-2), and 59% find the Government incompetent (+5).
Outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a final net approval rating of -29%, down 3 points from last Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds 54% disapproving of his overall job performance (+2), against 25% approving (-1).
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -5%, the same as last Wednesday. 26% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-1), while 31% disapprove (-1).
When asked to choose which of Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, respondents select Starmer (42%, +4) with greater frequency than Sunak (33%, +3).
And finally, Keir Starmer (39%, –) leads Liz Truss (33%, -2) by 6 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.