Latest GB Voting Intention (4 February 2024)

February 5, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 21%, two points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 28 January in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 45% (–)
Conservative 24% (+2)
Reform UK 12% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour. 

Only 48% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—just two points more than the lowest percentage recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister (46%), also recorded on the very day that he became Prime Minister.

19% of 2019 Conservative voters in this week’s poll now say they would vote for Reform UK if a General Election were held tomorrow—equalling the record high in our polling—while 19% would vote for Labour.

57% of British voters cite the economy and 52% cite healthcare as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election. Respondents also select immigration (33%), housing (24%), and education (23%).

40% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government. 16% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 9% expect a Conservative-led minority Government. 

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -29% this week. Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (+2), while 49% find the Government incompetent (-2).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -18%, unchanged from last week’s poll. This week’s poll finds 29% approving of his overall job performance (-1) against 47% (-1) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +7%, down two points from last week. 38% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 31% disapprove (–).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -10%, down one point from our previous poll. Overall, 35% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+1) and 25% approve (–).

And finally, Keir Starmer (45%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (29%, -1) by 16 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, just one point less than Starmer’s record lead over Sunak since the latter became Prime Minister, recorded on 3 September 2023. 

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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