Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 11%—an increase of 1% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 45% (+2)

Labour 34% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Green 5% (–)

Reform UK 3% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 10%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 7% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted Labour, and 20% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow, the same result as last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (71%) were more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (55%).

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have not changed significantly in the past week: 47% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (down 2%) against 22% who think Labour (up 2%). 81% (down 4%) of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory, whereas 54% (down 1%) of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory.

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -6% in this week’s poll, a 3% decrease from last week. Altogether, 31% find the Government competent (down 2%), 37% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), and 24% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 1%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive for the seventeenth week in a row––this time at +7%, though this latest figure represents a ten-point decrease from three weeks ago. This week’s poll finds 43% approving of his overall job performance (down 1%) against 36% disapproving (no change).  

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has increased somewhat since last week, with this week’s poll finding it at +30% (up 6%). 48% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 4%), while 18% disapprove (down 2%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating remains fairly negative, standing at -10% (a marginal one-point improvement from last week). 37% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 2%) while 27% approve (up 3%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 48% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a marginal one-point increase from last week. Conversely, 25% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson, a slight one-point decrease from last week.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (48% to 25%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (47% to 25%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (49% to 27%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (45% to 27%).

Keir Starmer only leads when it comes to best embodying the description of being ‘in good physical and mental health’ (36% to 33%).

Between the two leading figures of the Conservative Party, more respondents think Boris Johnson (42%, no change) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (29%, up 1%).

Rishi Sunak holds a 17% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a slight increase of 2% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 44% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 27% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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