Latest GB Voting Intention (31 May – 2 June 2024)

June 3, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll, our second since the UK General Election was called for 4 July, finds the Labour Party leading by 26%, three points up from our previous poll released on Monday last week.

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (20%) is their joint-lowest ever in our polling since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. The party has previously reached 20% in our polling twice: on 21 April this year and on 16 October 2022, the Sunday after Liz Truss sacked Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng.

Only once in this parliament have the Conservatives recorded a lower vote share: 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Liz Truss announced her resignation

Our poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 10,000 voters across Great Britain from Friday 31 May to Sunday 2 June, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 25-27 May in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 46% (–)
Conservative 20% (-3)
Reform UK 14% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 2% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 24%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 3% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again.

Only 42% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative againthe joint-lowest percentage we’ve recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister and just five points higher than the lowest percentage (37%) we’ve ever recorded (16 October 2022).

21% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they would vote for Labour, 19% would vote for Reform UK, and 6% would vote for other parties.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys a 22-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 25-point lead among women.

42% of voting-age men would vote for Labour, as would 41% of women. The Conservatives, meanwhile, enjoy slightly higher support among men (20%) than they do among women (16%). Support for Reform UK is also higher among men (14%) than it is among women (11%), while support for the Liberal Democrats is two points higher among women (10%) than it is among men (8%).

Notably, women are five points more likely to be undecided about how they would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow (13%) than men are (8%).

Breaking down our super sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 38 points among those aged 18-24 (51% vs 13%) to 13 points with the over 65’s (36% vs 23%).

With less than a quarter of the vote among those over the age of 65, the Conservatives are losing a core constituency of their traditional vote. In 2019, the Conservatives are estimated to have won more than 60% of voters in this age group.

When undecided voters (10% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) are asked which way they are leaning closest towards voting, 24% say they are leaning closest towards voting Conservative, 20% say they lean closest towards voting Labour, and 27% say they lean closest towards not voting than to voting.

While some readers may wish to compare this result with last week’s, we note that the population of undecided voters is not a constant group and may change as much, if not more, than attitudes within that population may change.

For instance, while the percentage of undecided voters saying they are leaning most towards voting Conservative has increased by four points in comparison to our previous poll, that change may in fact be due to some of those who last week would have said they were voting Conservative now saying they are undecided.

Among 2019 Conservative voters who are now undecided how they would vote on 4 July (a cohort that constitutes 11% of 2019 Conservative voters), 46% say they are leaning closest towards voting Conservative, while 16% are closest to voting for Labour, 10% for the Liberal Democrats, and 9% for Reform UK. A further 11% are closer to not voting altogether than voting for any of the parties listed.

58% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (52%). Respondents also select immigration (37%), housing (25%), and policing and crime (19%).

64% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, the joint-highest figure ever in our polling to predict a Labour Government would be the result of the next election.

By contrast, only 20% believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government, the joint-lowest percentage ever in our polling to predict a Conservative Government after the next election.

When the two parties are pitted against each other on the issues, Labour are more frequently trusted than the Conservatives on every policy issue listed.

Labour holds leads of more than 20 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to support the NHS (43% to 16%), to tackle poverty (42% to 15%), to manage housing (40% to 17%), to invest in ‘left behind’ areas (38% to 15%), and to support the education system (40% to 18%).

Labour is also more trusted by British voters than the Conservatives to manage the economy (37% to 23%) and to handle immigration (32% to 20%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -17%, up two points from last week. This week’s poll finds 30% approving of his overall job performance (+2) against 47% (–) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +11%, up two points from last week. 40% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+2), while 29% disapprove (–).

Keir Starmer (46%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (26%, –) by 20 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment

This latest result is both the widest lead Starmer has ever held over Sunak on this question and the joint-lowest percentage of respondents to say Rishi Sunak would be better than Keir Starmer that we have recorded in our tracker polling.

Finally, a majority of 55% of respondents think Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister after the coming General Election, against only 21% who think Rishi Sunak will be the Prime Minister after the election.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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