Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 4%, four points lower than in last Wednesday’s poll.  Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 27 July in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 38% (-3)

Conservative 34% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 11% (–)

Green 7% (+2)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 17% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 8% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 77% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 63% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Yesterday’s sample has 55% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (66%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (60%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (63%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select taxation (26%), education (25%), and immigration (24%).

A plurality (25%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 22% expect a Conservative Party majority, 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 14% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating is -32% in this week’s poll, unchanged from last Sunday. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (–), and 50% find the Government incompetent (–).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -16%, down one point from our poll last Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds 48% disapproving of his overall job performance (+1), against 32% approving (–).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -10%, unchanged from on Wednesday last week. 25% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 35% disapprove (-2).

Keir Starmer (40%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (33%, +1) by seven points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.

Finally, Liz Truss (37%, +4) leads Keir Starmer (36%, +2) by one point on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.