Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 7%, the same margin as in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 24 January in parentheses) are as follows: 1
Labour 40% (-1)
Conservative 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 6%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (no change), including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (no change) and 6% of those who voted Labour (down 2%).
Today’s sample has 56% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 2%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (67%, down 4%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted Labour (61%, down 3%).
Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (61%), the economy (49%), education (30%), immigration (22%), housing (22%), and taxation (22%).
For the third week in a row, a plurality (26%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (up 2%). 23% expect a Conservative majority (up 1%), 18% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 1%), and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 2%). 40% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 3%), while 49% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 8%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -35% in this week’s poll, decreasing two points since last week. Altogether, 19% find the Government competent (down 1%), 54% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), and 21% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).
At -27%, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has not changed in the past week. This week’s poll finds 55% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 1%), against 28% approving (up 1%).
Decreasing six points from last week, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak net approval rating stands at +11%, which ties for the lowest rating we have recorded for Sunak. 41% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 30% disapprove (up 5%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased by one point to -1%. 31% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 30% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 34% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 4%).
Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson in terms of who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment: 43% think Starmer (up 4%) and 31% think Johnson (down 2%) would be the better Prime Minister. This result marks the greatest proportion to say Starmer would be the better Prime Minister that we have recorded.
Boris Johnson does not lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies any of the various leadership characteristics on which we poll.
Starmer prevails order Johnson in all areas, including significant leads when it comes to best embodying traits like ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (50% to 21%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (45% to 25%), and ‘understands the problems afflicting the UK’ (44% to 27%). Starmer’s lead is narrowest on ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 34%).
A plurality (44%) of respondents say they don’t know which of the two leaders best embodies ‘tells the truth,’ while 42% say Starmer and 14% say Johnson. Pluralities are also unsure who ‘prioritises the environment’ (42%) or ‘is creative’ (43%).
Further, in a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 45% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) and 27% say Boris Johnson (down 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment—the largest proportion to say Sunak that we have recorded. Among 2019 Conservative voters, meanwhile, 44% say Johnson (down 4%) and 41% say Sunak (up 5%) would be better.
For the first time since we began tracking this question in June 2020, a slight plurality says Keir Starmer, rather than Rishi Sunak, would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 39% think Starmer would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (up 3%), against 38% who think Sunak would be (no change).
1 This poll was conducted prior to the preliminary release of Sue Gray’s report on gatherings held at 10 Downing Street during the coronavirus pandemic.