Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, nine points lower as in our most recent poll on Thursday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 25-26 October in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 50% (-5)
Conservative 27% (+4)
Liberal Democrat 9% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 20%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 22% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 89% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while just 52% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 52% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (63%) are more likely than those who voted Conservative (60%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
64% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (53%). Respondents also select education (30%), taxation (26%), and immigration (22%).
A large plurality (45%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. Just 16% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 11% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -34% this week, up 30 points from last Sunday. Altogether, 15% find the Government competent (+7), and 49% find the Government incompetent (-23).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +10%, up 8 points from our poll last Thursday. Yesterday’s poll finds 29% approving of his overall job performance (+2), against 19% disapproving (-6).
Among 2019 Conservative voters, 44% (+2) approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance as Prime Minister. Only 10% (-5) disapprove. His net approval rating with 2019 Conservative voters stands at +34%, up seven points since Thursday’s poll.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +8%, down five points from Thursday last week. 35% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-3), while 27% disapprove (+2).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at +6%, up 13 points since Thursday last week. Overall, 28% approve of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+2), and 22% disapprove (-11).
And finally, Rishi Sunak (41%, +2) leads Keir Starmer (37%, -1) by four points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.