Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 15%, two points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week, and Labour’s narrowest lead in Great Britain since 11 June (when it was 14%). Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 23 July in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 43% (-2)
Conservative 28% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-3)
Reform UK 7% (+1)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (+2)
Other 3% (+2)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 13%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 83% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 57% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
59% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (55%). Respondents also select immigration (32%), education (27%), and housing (20%).
Following a mixed set of by-election results, 33% of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, the lowest number of voters to say a Labour majority would be the likeliest outcome of such an election since 28 May. A further 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government. 19% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 10% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -26% this week, down seven points from last Sunday. Altogether, 22% find the Government competent (-4), while 48% find the Government incompetent (+3).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -14%, down four points from our poll last Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 30% approving of his overall job performance (-1) against 44% (+3) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +7%, down one point from last week. 37% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-1), while 30% disapprove (–).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -13%, also down one point from last Sunday. Overall, 34% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (-2), and 21% approve (-3).
And finally, Keir Starmer (40%, -3) leads Rishi Sunak (31%, -4) by nine points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.