The latest Great Britain voting intention poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies finds the Conservative Party leading the Labour Party by 2%a significant decline from their 10% lead last week. Altogether, this week’s full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 40% (-4)

Labour 38% (+4)

Liberal Democrat 7% (-1)

Scottish National Party 4% (-1)

Green 5% (+1)

Reform UK 3% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 2%—a significant decrease from their 8% lead last week in this form of voting intention results. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote.

This week’s sample had 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 1% decrease since last week, but still five points higher than two weeks ago. This week, 69% of 2019 Conservative voters (down 4%) and 62% of 2019 Labour voters (up 1%) said they would be certain to vote—a seven-point gap that is narrower than the usual double digit gaps we have seen between the two groups in recent weeks.

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election also show a slight change since last week: 38% now expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (down 3% from last week) compared to 28% who think the Labour Party will (up 3%). More than two-thirds (69%) of those who voted Conservative in 2019 think the Conservatives will win the most seats in the next General Election, which is not far from the two-thirds (66%) of 2019 Labour voters thinking the Labour Party will win the most seats in the next General Election.

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -6% in this week’s poll, 4% lower than last week and 8% lower than two weeks ago. Altogether, 35% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), 29% find the Government competent (down 3%), and 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 2%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has remained positive for the thirteenth week in a row and currently stands at +6%. However, this rating is a three-point decrease from last week and a nine-point decrease in the past two weeks. This week’s poll finds 42% approving of his overall job performance (down 2%), against 36% disapproving (up 1%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating remains relatively unchanged, with this week’s poll finding it at +28% (down 3% from last week, but identical to two weeks ago). 48% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 20% disapprove.

At the same time, Keir Starmer’s net approval rating currently stands at -1%, the same as last week and tied for the lowest ever net approval rating for Starmer since he became Leader of the Labour Party. Overall, 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 31% disapprove. Meanwhile, 31% of respondents neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 5%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 45% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a decrease of 1% from last week. Meanwhile, 30% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (up 1%).

In particular, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (45% to 29%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (43% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (45% to 31%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (46% to 25%).

On the other hand, Keir Starmer now narrowly leads Johnson in best embodying being someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (34% to 33%), a reversal from last week’s results, which showed Johnson leading Starmer in this category by 3%. In addition, Starmer continues to lead when it comes to best embodying the description of being ‘in good physical and mental health’ (38% to 30%).

Although the Chancellor continues to have a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (41%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (31%). These figures remain virtually unchanged since last week.

Rishi Sunak holds a 7% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a decrease of 5% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 40% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 33% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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