Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 6%, two points lower as in last week Wednesday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 26 June in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 41% (+1)
Conservative 35% (+3)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-2)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-2)
Reform UK 5% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party again leads by 6%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 3% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 68% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.
Sunday’s sample has 59% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (66%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
The economy (57%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (50%). Respondents also select immigration (25%), taxation (24%), and education (23%).
A plurality (25%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 21% expect a Conservative Party majority, 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 14% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating is -30% in this week’s poll, four points higher than last Sunday. Altogether, 21% find the Government competent (+1), and 51% find the Government incompetent (-3).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -22%, the same as Wednesday last week. Yesterday’s poll finds 52% disapproving of his overall job performance (+2), against 30% approving (+2).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -8%. 31% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (+1), while 39% disapprove (+2).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -7%. 29% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (–), while 36% disapprove (+2).
Keir Starmer (39%, +2) leads Boris Johnson (35%, –) by 5% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
Starmer also leads Johnson on a number of leadership characteristics, including “can bring British people together” (40% to 32%), “cares about people like me” (39% to 25%), and “stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom” (38% to 35%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 28% say Rishi Sunak (+1) and 32% say Boris Johnson (-1) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 40% say they don’t know (–).
Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 57% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister while 22% say Rishi Sunak.
Between Boris Johnson and Foreign Minister Elizabeth Truss, 36% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (-1). 18% (-3) meanwhile think Liz Truss would be the better Prime Minister.
Finally, Keir Starmer (38%, -1) stands ahead of Rishi Sunak (34%, +3) on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.