Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ first voting intention poll in Great Britain in 2022 finds the Labour Party leading by 3%, a five-point decrease in their lead over the Conservatives in last year’s final poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 20 December in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 38% (-1)

Conservative 35% (+4)

Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)

Green 5% (-1)

Scottish National Party 5% (–)

Reform UK 4% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 3%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 5% of those who voted Labour in 2019% and 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019—fewer than the 19% of 2019 Conservative voters in our last poll who were undecided, indicating one source of the Conservatives’ rebound.

Today’s sample has 56% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (64%) are now equally likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ compared to those who voted Conservative in 2019 (64%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (54%, +4), the economy (42%, no change), immigration (28%, -1), education (27%, +5),   coronavirus restrictions (23%, -6), and the environment (22%, -1).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 27% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (up 4%). 21% expect a Labour majority (down 1), 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (down 3%), and 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 2%). 45% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 1%), while 45% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down).

The Government’s net competency rating is -23% in this week’s poll. Altogether, 23% find the Government competent (up 4%), 46% find the Government incompetent (down 3%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 3%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -18%. This week’s poll finds 49% disapproving (down 6%) of his overall job performance, against 31% approving (up 5%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +20%. 44% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 6%), while 24% disapprove (down 3%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is now at -7%. 32% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 3%), while 25% approve (down 2%). Meanwhile, 35% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).

37% say they think Boris Johnson (up 3%) would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment in a contest against Keir Starmer, while 35% say they think Keir Starmer would be the better PM (no change).

Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the descriptions ‘can build a strong economy’ (39% to 33%) and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (35% to 31%).

Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (44% to 25%), ‘represents change’ (38% to 31%), and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (40% to 29%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘is a strong leader’ (36%) or ‘tells the truth’ (48%).

Further, in a contest between the current Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer, 36% say Rishi Sunak (no change) while 30% say Boris Johnson (up 3%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Rishi Sunak holds a three-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 35% who think Keir Starmer would be (up 1%).