Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 6%, an increase of 4% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 27 March in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 42% (+5)

Conservative 36% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 9% (–)

Green 4% (-1)

Scottish National Party 3% (-3)

Reform UK 3% (-2)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (down 1%), including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 5%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (down 7%). 

This week’s sample has 59% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (up 5%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (72%, up 1%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (61%, up 7%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (57%, up 5%) is ahead of healthcare (52%, up 1%) as the issue that the most respondents consider likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents also select taxation (25%, no change), education (24%, down 1%), immigration (24%, up 1%), housing (20%, down 3%), and the environment (20%, up 2%).

A plurality (26%) of respondents believe a Conservative Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (down 2%). 23% expect a Labour Party majority (down 1%), 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (down 1%), and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 2%). 49% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 2%), while 46% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (no change).

The Government’s net competency rating is -28% in this week’s poll, increasing by 9 points since last week. Altogether, 21% find the Government competent (down 3%), 49% find the Government incompetent (up 6%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 1%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -21%, decreasing by 13 points in the past week. This week’s poll finds 51% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 7%), against 30% approving (down 6%).

For the first time in our polling, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -5%. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 39% disapprove (up 6%).

Keir Starmer sees a neutral net approval rating. 31% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 31% disapprove (up 3%). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).

Boris Johnson’s (37%, -1%) no longer leads over Keir Starmer (37%, up 4%) in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Boris Johnson only leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (36% to 30%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (36% to 33%), and ‘stands up for the interests of the UK’ (37% to 36%). 

Keir Starmer now leads in terms of ‘can build a strong economy’ (36% to 35%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (38% to 36%) and ‘can bring British people together’ (38% to 34%).

Meanwhile, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is creative’ (48%), ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (43%), ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%), or ‘is a strong leader’ (36%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 29% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) and 35% say Boris Johnson (down 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 36% say they don’t know (up 1%).

At the same time, Keir Starmer has pulled ahead of Rishi Sunak on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 35% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 38% who think Starmer would be (up 3%).