Latest GB Voting Intention (3-5 February 2024)

February 9, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Between Saturday and Monday this week, we at Redfield & Wilton Strategies conducted a special, one-off Westminster Voting Intention poll among a demographically representative sample of 5,000 British voters.

Altogether, our super poll finds Labour holds a 21% advantage over the Conservatives, a result which matches that of our latest regular tracking poll which was conducted (with a smaller sample size) on Sunday last week.

Altogether, the full numbers are as follows:

Labour 44%
Conservative 23%
Reform UK 12%
Liberal Democrat 11%
Green 5%
Scottish National Party 3%
Other 1%

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 18%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys a 16-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 21-point lead among women.

38% of voting-age men would vote for Labour, as would 39% of women. The Conservatives, meanwhile, enjoy slightly higher support among men (22%) than they do among women (18%). Support for Reform UK is also higher among men (13%) than it is among women (8%).

Notably, women are five points more likely to be undecided about how they would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow (16%) than men are (11%).

Among men, the Conservatives held wide leads over Labour for much of the period up until December 2021, at which point the ‘Partygate’ scandal saw the Conservatives lose their lead among men to Labour for the first time since the 2019 General Election.

Support for the Conservatives amongst men dropped below 20% towards the end of Liz Truss’ Premiership and has now spent several months in the low 20’s. Reflecting the party’s lead in overall polling, Labour has held wide leads amongst men for most of the period since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.

In fact, with 22% of the male vote at present, the Conservatives are only 4-points above their lowest polling result achieved among men when Liz Truss was Prime Minister.

Over the course of this Parliament, support for the Conservatives was strong among women only during the initial months of the pandemic, before tracking roughly equally to Labour for much of 2020 and 2021.

When the Owen Patterson scandal broke in November 2021, support among women for the Conservatives dropped precipitously and has since never recovered. Labour’s support amongst women has held at or above 35% since early 2022, before Boris Johnson resigned.

With just 18% of female vote, the Conservatives are polling only four points above their lowest percentage among women achieved in this Parliament, 14% during Liz Truss’ final week as Prime Minister.

Breaking down our super sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 36 points among those aged 18-24 (45% vs 9%) to a comparatively narrow seven points with the over 65’s (32% vs 25%).

With only a quarter of the vote among those over the age of 65, the Conservatives are losing a core constituency of their traditional vote. In 2019, the Conservatives are estimated to have won more than 60% of voters in this age group.

Further results and analysis from this poll—which will break down Britons’ current voting intention by their financial situation, educational attainment, and other criteria—will be published throughout next week.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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