Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 7%, two points lower than in last week Wednesday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 25 May in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 43% (+3)
Conservative 36% (+5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-4)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 2% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 6%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (-2), including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (-5) and 6% of those who voted Labour (+1). Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 71% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote the same way.
This week’s sample has 50% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (+7). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (69%, +9) are more likely than those who voted Labour (58%, +16) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
The economy (56%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, slightly ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select education (28%), housing (27%), taxation (25%), immigration (23%), and welfare (22%).
A plurality (26%, +1) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 22% expect a Conservative Party majority (+3), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (–), and 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government (–).
The Government’s net competency rating is -30% in this week’s poll, increasing one point in the last week. Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (+2), 50% find the Government incompetent (+1), and 20% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (-4).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -23%, increasing by five points since Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds 52% disapproving of his overall job performance (-1), against 29% approving (+4).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -11%. 29% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (+2), while 40% disapprove (-3).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -4%. 27% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 31% disapprove (-2). Meanwhile, 34% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (+2).
Keir Starmer (38%, +2) leads Boris Johnson (33%, -1) by 5% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
Boris Johnson leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 30%) and ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 33%)
In all other categories, Keir Starmer leads Boris Johnson.
However, pluralities say they don’t know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (49%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (44%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 28% say Rishi Sunak (+4) and 31% say Boris Johnson (–) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 41% say they don’t know (-4).
Keir Starmer (39%, +3) stands ahead of Rishi Sunak (31%, +1) on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.