Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 8%—an increase of 2% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 44% (+2)

Labour 36% (–)

Liberal Democrat 7% (-2)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Green 4% (-2)

Reform UK 2% (–)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 9% of those who voted Labour, and 15% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.

This week’s sample had 55% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 10% increase since last week and the highest in four weeks.

Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (72%) than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (55%). 2019 Conservatives are 10% more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than last week, while 2019 Labour voters are 9% more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ compared to the previous week.

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have not changed significantly: 40% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (down 2% from last week) against 29% who think Labour (up 1%). Those who say they would now vote Conservative are still substantially more confident of a Conservative victory (82%) than those who say they would now vote Labour are confident of a Labour victory (70%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -2% in this week’s poll, a 1% improvement since last week. Altogether, 34% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), 32% find the Government competent (up 3%), and 26% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (down 2%).

For the eighth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +11%, though this represents a 7% decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 45% approving of his overall job performance, against 34% disapproving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has increased to its highest level since before the Budget announcement on 1 March 2021, with this week’s poll finding it at +31% (up 7%). 49% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 18% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stand at +2%, a decrease of 7% since last week. 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 28% disapprove. A plurality (35%) of members of the public neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 47% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a decrease of 3% from last week. Meanwhile, 28% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (46% to 29%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (46% to 27%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (47% to 28%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (46% to 25%). For the fourth week in a row, Boris Johnson holds a lead against Keir Starmer as best embodying someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (34% to 33%), though this lead is slight and has decreased since last week when it was 40% to 32%.

After Boris Johnson took the lead as the person who best embodied the description ‘represents change’ for the past two weeks, the public is now evenly split, with 36% favouring Boris Johnson and 36% favouring Keir Starmer.

Keir Starmer continues to lead only when it comes to best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (41% to 31%).

Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (42%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (30%). However, Boris Johnson’s lead has decreased 10% since last week, now standing at +12%.

Rishi Sunak holds a 13% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, an increase of 6% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 42% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 29% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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