Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 7%—a decrease of 4% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 41% (-3)

Labour 34% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)

Scottish National Party 5% (+1)

Green 5% (+1)

Reform UK 3% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 6%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample had 60% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (71%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (58%).

Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have not changed significantly in the past week: 43% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (no change) against 26% who think Labour (up 3%). 73% of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory (down 4%), whereas 60% of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory (down 1%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -11% in this week’s poll, a 4% decrease from last week. Altogether, 29% find the Government competent (down 1%), 40% find the Government incompetent (up 3%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 2%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -2%, a five-point decrease from last week and his first negative net approval rating since February 2021. This week’s poll finds 40% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 2%) against 38% approving (down 3%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has increased considerably after his joint lowest-ever net approval rating last week, with this week’s poll finding it at +32% (up 8%). 49% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (up 5%), while 17% disapprove (down 3%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -7%, a five-point increase from last week. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 2%), while 28% approve (up 3%). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 42% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which is 4% lower than last week. Conversely, 31% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (43% to 30%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (42% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (42% to 32%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (41% to 28%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead when it comes to best embodying the description of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (43% to 26%), while now also leading for ‘cares about people like me’ (39% to 26%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (39% to 32%), and ‘represents change’ (36% to 34%).

35% say Boris Johnson (down 5%) and 35% say Rishi Sunak (up 4%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, representing the first time that Boris Johnson has not led in this regard since November 2020.

Rishi Sunak holds a 11% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a three-point decrease since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 42% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 31% who think Keir Starmer would be.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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