Latest GB Voting Intention (28 June – 2 July 2024)

July 2, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ final national Westminster Voting Intention poll before the General Election on Thursday finds the Labour Party leading by 19%, four points less than in our previous poll released last Thursday.

Labour’s national lead is below 20% in our polling for the first time since 10 March. Labour’s vote share of 41% ties their lowest in our polling since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister (having been 41% only once, on 7 May 2023, and never lower since he was replaced by Liz Truss).

The Conservatives (22%) meanwhile achieve their highest vote share in our Westminster Voting Intention poll since 27 May (our first poll after the election was called, in which they had 23%).

Our poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 20,000 voters across Great Britain from Friday 28 June to Monday 2 July, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 26-27 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 18%. 

After weighting by likelihood to vote, 6% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 6% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 2% of those who voted Labour.

When broken down by 2019 vote, 80% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again, while 24% of those who voted Liberal Democrat and 14% of those who voted Green at the last election also say they will now vote for Labour. 86% of those who voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 now say they will vote for that party’s renamed successor, Reform UK.

37% of those who did not vote in 2019 say they will vote for Labour, while 14% of this group will vote for Reform UK, and 10% for the Conservatives. 18% of those who did not vote in 2019 are undecided.

46% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now say they will now vote Conservative again, seven points higher than was the case in our previous poll and the joint-highest percentage of 2019 Conservatives to say they would vote for the party again since the General Election was called (tied with 25-27 May).

23% of 2019 Conservative voters say they will vote for Reform UK, while 19% will vote for Labour.

When broken down by gender and age (and still including undecided voters), Labour leads among women by 21% and among men by 15%.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives among men ranges from as wide as 35 points among men aged 18-24 (47% vs 12%) to just a single point among men aged over 65 (30% vs 29%).

Reform UK performs best among men aged 45-54 (21%) and 55-64 (20%), while the Liberal Democrats perform best among men aged over 65 (11%).

Labour holds leads over the Conservatives among women in every age group, from 43 points among women aged 18-24 (50% vs 7%) to five points among women aged over 65 (31% vs 26%).

Reform UK performs best among women aged 45-54 (17%) and 55-64 (16%), while the Liberal Democrats attract the support of 11% of women aged 35-44, 45-54, and over 65.

Women aged 35-44 (9%), 45-54 (10%), and 55-64 (9%) are the groups most likely to be undecided how to vote on Thursday.

When undecided voters (6% of the sample, when weighted by likelihood to vote) are asked which way they are leaning closest towards voting, 17% say they are leaning closest towards voting Labour, 14% say they lean closest towards voting Conservative, and 29% say they lean closest towards not voting than to voting.

Among 2019 Conservative voters who are now undecided how they would vote on 4 July (a cohort that constitutes 6% of 2019 Conservative voters), 28% say they are leaning closest towards voting Conservative, while 20% are closest to voting for Reform UK, 15% for Labour, and 13% for the Liberal Democrats. 

A further 15% are closer to not voting altogether than voting for any of the parties listed.

58% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (55%). Respondents also select immigration (39%), housing (23%), and policing and crime (18%).

When Britons’ voting intentions are broken down based on what they say are the most important issues that will determine how they vote, Labour leads the Conservatives by 27 points among voters who identify healthcare as among their top three issues (45% to 18%) and by 18 points among those for whom the economy is a top issue (41% to 23%).

Among voters who identify immigration as among their top three issues, Reform UK (30%) leads the Conservatives (28%) by two points and Labour (27%) by three points.

70% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, compared to only 16% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government.

With a Labour victory now widely expected, 44% say they would feel satisfied if Labour won the General Election, against 30% who would feel unsatisfied.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -23%, up two points from his previous rating. Our latest poll finds 27% approving of his overall job performance (+1) against 50% (-1) disapproving.

Among 2019 Conservative voters, Sunak’s approval rating now stands at +8%, up eight points from our previous poll when his rating was at its lowest ever (0%) among this group of voters. 

42% (+3) of 2019 Conservative voters now approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, against 34% (-5) who disapprove.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +9%, down seven points from our previous poll. 41% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-2), while 32% disapprove (+5).

Keir Starmer (48%, -1) leads Rishi Sunak (25%, –) by 23 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, just two points below Starmer’s largest ever lead over Sunak on this question recorded last Monday.

As for who will be the next Prime Minister come Friday morning, a majority of 62% of respondents think Keir Starmer will be the Prime Minister after the coming General Election, against only 17% who think Rishi Sunak will be the Prime Minister after the election.

Given the extent of Labour’s lead in voting intention polling, a sub-contest in this election has been who will (or should) lead the Opposition in the next parliament.

In our latest poll, Nigel Farage (30%) continues to lead a nameless, next Conservative Party leader (28%) for who would be the best Opposition Leader, with Ed Davey in third place on 15%.

Rishi Sunak has intimated in recent days that, even if the Conservatives were to lose the election, he may stay on as Conservative Leader rather than resign.

However, Nigel Farage (29%) also leads Sunak (26%) for who would be the best Opposition Leader to a Starmer-led Labour Government, should Sunak decide to stay on.

Among 2019 Conservative voters, Sunak (39%) and Farage (38%) are virtually tied as to who would best hold Keir Starmer to account as Leader of the Opposition.

When thinking about how they feel now versus a few years ago, 46% of Britons say they are now worse off than they were a few years ago, against only 22% who say they are better off.

While a plurality of likely Conservative voters say they are better off (37%), a majority of likely Reform voters (60%), and pluralities of likely Labour (49%), Liberal Democrat (48%), and undecided (47%) voters say they are now worse off.

Majorities of all major voting groups cite the cost-of-living crisis as one of the five prompted events in the last few years that has had the greatest impact on how they will vote, while majorities of likely Labour, SNP, and Liberal Democrat voters cite NHS waiting list increases as a key event in determining their vote.

53% of likely Reform UK voters select small boat crossings as a key event in determining their vote.

Finally, when asked to consider which events during the election campaign have had the greatest impact on how Britons intend to vote, 45% of likely Conservative voters cite inflation falling to 2% as among the three most impactful events.

Likely Labour voters are most likely to cite Labour’s ‘change’ slogan (22%) and the Conservatives plan to re-introduce national service (20%) as recent events that have most impacted how they will vote.

Nigel Farage’s return (43%) and the announcement that Net immigration into the UK in 2023 stood at 685,000 (42%) are the most likely events to be cited by Reform UK voters as determining how they will vote.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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