Latest GB Voting Intention (28 January 2024)

January 29, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, unchanged from our previous poll released on Monday last week

At 22%, unchanged from last week, this poll again marks the Conservative Party’s joint-lowest vote share in our polling since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 21 January in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 45% (–)
Conservative 22% (–)
Reform UK 12% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
Green 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 20%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 3% of those who voted Labour. 

Only 47% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—just one point more than the lowest percentage recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister (46%), also recorded on the very day that he became Prime Minister.

For context, the lowest percentages of 2019 Conservative voters to say they would vote Conservative again in our polling to date are 37% (16 October 2022), 38% (19 October 2022)—both of those recorded just prior to Liz Truss’ announcement that she would resign as Prime Minister—and 43% (23 October 2022).

19% of 2019 Conservative voters in this week’s poll now say they would vote for Reform UK if a General Election were held tomorrow—a record high in our polling—while 19% would vote for Labour.

60% of British voters cite the economy and 57% cite healthcare as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election. Respondents also select immigration (37%), housing (23%), and education (23%).

58% of respondents believe either a Labour Party majority (45%) or minority (13%) Government would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, the highest percentage to say they would expect such an election to result in a Labour Government that we’ve recorded.

By contrast, just 23% would expect an election within the next six months to result in either a Conservative Party majority (15%) or minority (8%) Government, the joint-lowest percentage of voters to say they would expect this outcome since we began our GB tracker.

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -33% this week. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (+2), while 51% find the Government incompetent (–).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -18%, up three points from last week’s poll. This week’s poll finds 30% approving of his overall job performance (+3) against 48% (–) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +9%, down two points from last week. 40% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+2), while 31% disapprove (+4).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -9%, down one point from our previous poll. Overall, 34% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+3) and 25% approve (+2). 

And finally, Keir Starmer (44%, +2) leads Rishi Sunak (30%, +1) by 14 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. 

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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