Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 3%, a three-point decrease to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 21 February in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 38% (-1)

Conservative 35% (+2)

Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)

Green 5% (-2)

Scottish National Party 5% (–)

Reform UK 4% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party also leads by 3%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (down 1%), including 18% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 2%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (down 1%).

Today’s sample has 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (up 7%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (67%, up 4%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (55%, up 2%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (58%), the economy (53%), education (30%), immigration (26%), and taxation (24%). Foreign policy (12%) has notably risen in importance for British voters in the past week, having doubled from 6% last Monday.

Respondents are divided on whether a Labour Party majority (23%, down 1%) or a Conservative Party majority (23%, no change) would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 19% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 3%) and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government (no change). 45% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 1%), while 46% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 6%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -24% in this week’s poll, increasing by 11 points since last week. Altogether, 23% find the Government competent (up 6%), 47% find the Government incompetent (down 5%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has increased 13 points to -18%. This week’s poll finds 50% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 6%), against 32% approving (up 7%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +3%, representing a one-point decrease from last week and Sunak’s lowest-ever net rating we have recorded to date. 36% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 33% disapprove (up 1%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased one point to 0% this week. 30% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 1%), while 30% approve (no change). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 1%).

Between Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson, 36% think Starmer (down 1%) and 36% think Johnson (up 7%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Boris Johnson has regained his lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (41% to 30%), ‘can build a strong economy’ (39% to 36%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (35% to 33%). Johnson also now leads in best embodying ‘stands up for the interests of the UK’ (40% to 36%), while respondents are divided on whether Starmer (36%) or Johnson (36%) best embodies ‘can bring British people together.’

Keir Starmer continues to enjoy substantial leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the characteristics ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (46% to 24%), ‘cares about people like me’ (41% to 24%), and ‘represents change’ (42% to 28%).

Meanwhile, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (46%), ‘is creative’ (44%), ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%), or ‘is a strong leader’ (35%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 37% say Rishi Sunak (down 3%) and 31% say Boris Johnson (up 3%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Keir Starmer holds a one-point lead over Rishi Sunak for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 37% think Starmer would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 36% who think Sunak would be (up 2%). 

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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