Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 9%, the same as in Thursday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 24 August in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 33% (–)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (+2)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 8%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 8% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 82% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while just 60% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 52% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (63%) are slightly more likely than those who voted Conservative (60%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
After weeks of intense media focus on rising energy bills and the cost-of-living crisis, the economy (65%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select immigration (25%), education (24%), and the environment (20%).
A plurality (29%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, while 18% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating is -40% in this week’s poll, down 4 points from last Sunday’s 36%. Altogether, only 14% find the Government competent (-2), and 54% find the Government incompetent (+2).
Outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -18%, the same as in both of last week’s polls. Yesterday’s poll finds 50% disapproving of his overall job performance (-1), against 32% approving (-1).
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is down one point from last Thursday, now at -6%. 27% approve of Starmer’s job performance (–), while 33% disapprove (+1).
When asked to choose which of Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, respondents select Starmer (39%, –) with greater frequency than Sunak (33%, +1).
And finally, Keir Starmer (37%, +2) leads Liz Truss (35%, +1) by 2 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.