Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 2%, a decrease of 3% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 20 March in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 37% (-3)

Conservative 35% (–)

Liberal Democrat 9% (-2)

Green 5% (-2)

Scottish National Party 6% (+2)

Reform UK 5% (+3)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 1%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (down 1%), including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 7%) and 13% of those who voted Labour (up 7%)—the first time that more 2019 Labour voters than 2019 Conservative are undecided in voting intention since 13 June 2021.

This week’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 3%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (71%, up 2%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (56%, down 1%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (52%, down 3%) is slightly ahead of healthcare (51%, down 4%) as the issue that the most respondents consider likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents also select education (25%, down 1%), taxation (25%, up 3%), immigration (23%, no change), housing (23%, up 3%), and welfare (20%, up 2%).

A plurality (28%) of respondents believe a Conservative Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (up 1%). 24% expect a Labour Party majority (no change), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (no change), and 9% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 1%). 51% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 1%), while 46% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 1%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -19% in this week’s poll, increasing by 8 points since last week. Altogether, 24% find the Government competent (up 3%), 43% find the Government incompetent (down 5%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 1%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -8%, increasing by 7 points in the past week. This week’s poll finds 44% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 3%), against 36% approving (up 4%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +1%, his lowest net approval rating to date. 34% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 33% disapprove (no change).

For the second time since 19 April 2021, Keir Starmer sees a positive net approval rating. 30% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 1%), while 28% disapprove (down 3%). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 2%).

Boris Johnson’s (38%, no change) lead over Keir Starmer (33%, down 3%) has widened in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Boris Johnson leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (40% to 31%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (41% to 32%), and ‘can build a strong economy’ (38% to 35%). 

Keir Starmer leads in terms of ‘understanding the problems afflicting the UK’ (38% to 34%) and ‘represents change’ (40% to 30%).

Meanwhile, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is creative’ (43%), ‘tells the truth’ (48%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (45%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (39%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 28% say Rishi Sunak (down 5%) and 37% say Boris Johnson (up 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 35% say they don’t know (up 3%). These results represent the widest lead for Johnson over Sunak since 18 October 2021. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, Johnson leads 61% (up 3%) to 20% (down 6%).

However, Rishi Sunak remains tied Keir Starmer on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 36% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 36% who think Starmer would be (down 1%).