Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 8%, one point lower as in last week Wednesday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 22 June in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 41% (–)

Conservative 33% (+1)

Liberal Democrat 15% (+2)

Green 4% (-1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 3% (-2)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 17% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 83% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 67% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Sunday’s sample has 52% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. In a change from recent months, those who voted Labour in 2019 (65%) are more likely than those who voted Conservative (57%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (57%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (46%). Respondents also select immigration (24%), education (23%), and taxation (22%).

A plurality (27%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 23% expect a Conservative Party majority, 15% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 14% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating is -34% in this week’s poll, four points lower than last Sunday. Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (+1), and 54% find the Government incompetent (+5).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -24%, decreasing by one point since Wednesday last week. Yesterday’s poll finds 53% disapproving of his overall job performance, against 29% approving.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -9%. 30% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 39% disapprove.

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -5%. 29% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance, while 34% disapprove. Meanwhile, 31% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.

Keir Starmer (37%, –) leads Boris Johnson (35%, +2) by 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, Johnson and Starmer are tied on ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (37% each).

Starmer leads on ‘understands the problems afflicting the UK’ (39% to 31%), ‘represents change’ (44% to 26%), and ‘cares about people like me’ (40% to 22%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 27% say Rishi Sunak (-1) and 33% say Boris Johnson (+1) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 40% say they don’t know (-1). 

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, 60% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister while 22% say Rishi Sunak. 

Between Boris Johnson and Foreign Minister Elizabeth Truss, 37% say Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (+2). 21% (+2) meanwhile think Liz Truss would be the better Prime Minister.

Finally, Keir Starmer (39%, +1) stands well ahead of Rishi Sunak (31%, –) on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.