Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 10%—the same result as last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 44% (–)
Labour 34% (–)
Liberal Democrat 8% (-2)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Green 4% (–)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 8%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted Labour, and 21% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.
This week’s sample had 59% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 6% increase since last week. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (73%) than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (61%).
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have not changed significantly: 41% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (no change from last week) against 25% who think Labour (down 3%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 are still substantially more confident of a Conservative victory (77%) than those who voted Labour are confident of a Labour victory (62%).
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -2% in this week’s poll, a 4% decrease since last week’s positive rating. Altogether, 34% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), 32% find the Government competent (down 2%), and 26% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (up 1%).
For the twelfth week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at 9%, though this represents a 6-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 44% approving of his overall job performance, against 35% disapproving.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is relatively unchanged, with this week’s poll finding it at +31% (up 3%). 50% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 19% disapprove.
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -1%, a 3% decrease since last week and the lowest ever approval rating for Keir Starmer. 31% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 32% disapprove. 31% of adults in Great Britain neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 46% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a decrease of 1% from last week. Meanwhile, 29% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.
More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (48% to 27%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (45% to 28%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (49% to 28%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (47% to 25%).
Boris Johnson continues to closely lead over Keir Starmer in best embodying someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (35% to 32%) and ‘represents change’ (38% to 35%).
Keir Starmer continues to lead only when it comes to best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (40% to 31%).
Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (40%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (30%).
Rishi Sunak holds a 12% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a decrease of 1% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 42% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 30% who think Keir Starmer would be.