Latest GB Voting Intention (26-27 June 2024)

June 27, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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With just one week to go until polling day in the UK General Election, Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, unchanged from our previous poll released on Monday

Having trailed Reform UK in both of our previous polls, the Conservatives have moved back into second place on 19%. 

This figure is, however, still only one point above their lowest ever vote share in our polling in this Parliament and equals their worst under Liz Truss, 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Truss announced her resignation.

Our poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 5,000 voters across Great Britain from Wednesday 26 June to Thursday 27 June, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 21-24 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 19% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 21%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 7% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 7% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just 2% of those who voted Labour.

Altogether, 82% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 

39% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 now say they will now vote Conservative again, four points higher than was the case in our previous poll, when support for the Conservatives among those who voted for the party in 2019 hit a record low of 35%.

24% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they will vote for Reform UK, while 21% will vote for Labour.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys a 20-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 23-point lead among women.

39% of men say they will vote for Labour, while marginally more men say that they will vote Conservative (19%) than say they will vote for Reform UK (18%).

39% of women say they will vote for Labour. 16% of women say they will vote Conservative, while 14% say they will vote Reform.

Support for Reform UK and for the Conservatives is higher among men (37% combined) than it is among women (30% combined). Notably, women are almost three times more likely to be undecided about how they will vote in the General Election (11%) than men are (4%).

Breaking down our sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 44 points among those aged 18-24 (49% vs 5%) to nine points with those aged over 65 (32% vs 23%).

Reform UK attracts more support than the Conservatives among voters aged 18-24 (12% to 5%), 45-54 (21% to 15%), and 55-64 (22% to 19%), while also attracting the support of almost one-fifth (19%) of voters aged over 65.

Among voters aged 18-24, the Conservatives are in fifth place.

57% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (54%). Respondents also select immigration (41%), housing (25%), and policing and crime (17%).

69% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, compared to only 15% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government, a joint-record low in our polling.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -25%, down two points from his previous rating. Our latest poll finds 26% approving of his overall job performance (-3) against 51% (-1) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +16%, up five points from our previous poll, and the highest net approval rating he has held since November 2022

43% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+2), while 27% disapprove (-3).

Keir Starmer (49%, –) leads Rishi Sunak (25%, +1) by 24 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, just one point below Starmer’s largest ever lead over Sunak on this question recorded on Monday.

Finally, given the extent of Labour’s lead in the Voting Intention polling and the decline in the Conservative’s support, another contest in this election may be who ought to be the next Opposition Leader.

In our latest poll, Nigel Farage (31%) leads a nameless, next Conservative Party leader (25%) for who would be the best Opposition Leader, with Ed Davey in third place on 16%.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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