Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 13%, three points higher as in our most recent poll on 21 September, and tied for the largest lead we’ve recorded for Labour over the Conservatives. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 21 September in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 44% (+2)
Conservative 31% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 11%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 60% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 52% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (60%) are marginally more likely than those who voted Labour (59%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
The economy (64%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (57%). Respondents also select education (28%), immigration (21%), taxation (21%), and the environment (21%).
A plurality (29%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, while 21% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 15% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 11% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
Following the announcement of the mini budget on Friday, the Government receives a net competency rating -30% this week, down 8 points from last Sunday. Altogether, only 18% find the Government competent (-2), and 48% find the Government incompetent (+6).
Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of -6%, down 10 points from our poll last Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds 29% approving of her overall job performance (-2), against 35% disapproving (+8).
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +2%, the same as on Wednesday last week. 31% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-1), while 29% disapprove (-1).
And finally, Keir Starmer (38%, +3) leads Liz Truss (34%, -6) by 4 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.