Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 3%—the same lead as in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows: 

Conservative 39% (-1)

Labour 36% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)

Green 6% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 2%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample has 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (72%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted Labour (58%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (53%), the economy (43%), immigration (25%), education (23%), the environment (22%), and coronavirus restrictions (22%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 36% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (down 2%). 19% expect a Labour Party majority (down 1%), 15% expect a Conservative Party-led minority Government (no change), and 7% expect a Labour Party-led minority Government (up 1%). 63% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 3%), whereas 48% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 2%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -13% in this week’s poll, a figure which has decreased by 1% in the past week. Altogether, 27% find the Government competent (down 1%), 40% find the Government incompetent (no change), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (no change).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -3%, a one-point decrease since last week. This week’s poll finds 40% disapproving (down 1%) of his overall job performance, against 37% approving (down 2%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +18%, also representing a one-point decrease compared to last week. 42% approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 24% disapprove (no change).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has not changed in the past week, remaining at -10%. 36% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 26% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 31% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 43% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, the same result as in last week’s poll. Conversely, 30% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (down 2%).

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (44% to 27%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (43% to 30%), ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (43% to 30%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (42% to 27%), and ‘is a strong leader’ (41% to 26%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the description of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (37% to 30%). Britons are divided on whether Starmer or Johnson best embodies ‘represents change’ (35% to 35%) and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (34% to 34%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (44%), ‘is creative’ (41%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (41%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (40%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 38% say Boris Johnson (down 1%) and 30% say Rishi Sunak (no change) would be the better Prime Minister.

Rishi Sunak holds a nine-point lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 39% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (up 1%), against 30% who think Keir Starmer would be (down 4%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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