Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 4%—a decrease of 5% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:

Conservative 40% (-2)

Labour 36% (+3)

Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)

Green 6% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 3%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour.

This week’s sample had 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (73%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (63%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (50%), the economy (39%), immigration (29%), education (25%), coronavirus restrictions (26%), and the environment (24%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 38% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority, a decrease of 5% from last week. 17% expect a Labour Party majority (no change), 13% expect a Conservative Party-led minority Government (down 1%), and 6% expect a Labour Party-led minority Government (no change). 67% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 5%), whereas 42% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 3%).

The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -17% in this week’s poll, a 6% decrease from last week. Altogether, 25% find the Government competent (down 4%), 42% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), and 25% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 2%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -15%, a decrease of 14% from last week and the lowest net approval rating for Johnson since we began asking this question in March 2020. This week’s poll finds 47% disapproving (up 6%) of his overall job performance, against 32% approving (down 8%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has decreased to its lowest level since we began asking this question in March 2020, with this week’s poll finding it at +16% (down 5%). 41% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 3%), while 25% disapprove (up 2%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -15%, a two-point decrease from last week and his lowest to date. 40% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 1%), while 25% approve (down 1%). Meanwhile, 29% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 2%).

Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 40% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which is four points lower than last week. Conversely, 30% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson (no change).

More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (43% to 28%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (39% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (39% to 31%), and ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (39% to 32%).  

Keir Starmer continues to lead when it comes to best embodying the description of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (38% to 28%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would be a better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 43% think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (down 3%), against 29% who think Andy Burnham would be (up 2%).

Further, 34% say Rishi Sunak (up 3%) and 33% say Boris Johnson (down 4%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, representing the first time Rishi Sunak has lead over Boris Johnson since November 2020.

Rishi Sunak holds a 10% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a two-point decrease since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 41% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 31% who think Keir Starmer would be (up 1%).