Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 5%. The Conservatives’ lead is 3% higher than last week’s poll and 1% higher than our poll two weeks ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 18 January in parenthesis) are as follows:
Conservative 42% (+2)
Labour 37% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 8% (–)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 0% (–)
Other 2% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 4%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample said they do not know how they vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 8% of those who voted Labour, and 24% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.
This week’s sample had 60% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were noticeably more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (75%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (62%).
Meanwhile, predictions as to which party is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have remained relatively unchanged, with 36% expecting the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats against 33% who think Labour will.
This week’s Government Net Competency rating finds another marginal improvement in favour of the Government. 39% find the current Government incompetent against 27% who find it competent.
Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive for the first time in eleven polls. This week’s poll finds 40% approving and 38% disapproving of his job performance. The last time his net approval rating was registered as positive was in a poll conducted on 1-2 September.
The number two to the Prime Minister, Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating remains high at +31%. 49% approve of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Job Performance, while 18% disapprove.
A plurality of members of the public (36%) continue to say they ‘neither approve nor disapprove’ of Labour Leader Keir Starmer’s overall job performance. His net approval rating stands at +9%.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 43% say they think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment. 31% think Keir Starmer would be the better PM, while 26% said they don’t know.
When asked about specific qualities between the leaders of the two largest political parties in the United Kingdom, respondents particularly tended to think Boris Johnson is better suited to build a strong economy (44% to 29%), work with foreign leaders (44% to 34%), get things done (40% to 31%), stand up for the interests of the United Kingdom (46% to 30%), and, perhaps most importantly at this moment, tackle the coronavirus pandemic (38% to 26%).
Keir Starmer finds himself in fairly good standing only with respect to being in better physical and mental health (41% to 29%). He holds only a marginal lead in representing change (37% to 36%), a significant indictment of the opposition leader given that the Conservative Party has been in power for more than a decade.
Indicative of the current level of disillusionment regarding politics in the United Kingdom, 44% of respondents said they don’t know who best embodies telling the truth, and 35% were unsure about who ‘cares about people like me.’ Overall, around a quarter to a third of respondents did not know whom to pick between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, suggesting a diminished level of public debate.
Between the top two ministers in the Conservative Party, 39% think Boris Johnson would be the better PM at this moment, while 31% think Rishi Sunak.
Finally, Rishi Sunak holds a 7% lead over Keir Starmer for best PM at this moment.
Altogether, as the United Kingdom ramps up the number of vaccinations given each day, the Conservative Party finds itself leading by 5%. Boris Johnson finds himself with a net positive approval rating for the first time since the beginning of September. Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 12% more respondents say they think Boris Johnson would be the better PM at this moment. The current Prime Minister is viewed as the stronger candidate over the Leader of the Opposition with respect to a few key qualities as rebuilding the economy, standing for the interests of the United Kingdom, and tackling the coronavirus pandemic. His number two, Rishi Sunak, continues to command strong approval ratings, while a plurality of the public neither approve nor disapprove of Keir Starmer.
To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.