Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 10%—an increase of 1% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 43% (+1)
Labour 33% (–)
Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 5% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 2% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives also lead by 10%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 8% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 8% of those who voted Labour.
This week’s sample had 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, an increase of 2% since last week and 7% since a fortnight ago. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (70%) were more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (62%).
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have not changed significantly in the past week: 49% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 1%) against 20% who think Labour (down 1%). This latest figure represents the lowest ever result for Labour and the highest ever result for the Conservatives. 85% (up 5%) of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory, whereas 55% (down 2%) of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory.
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -3% in this week’s poll, a 3% decrease from last week. Altogether, 33% find the Government competent (up 2%), 36% find the Government incompetent (up 5%), and 23% find the Government neither incompetent nor competent (down 7%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive for the sixteenth week in a row––this time at +8%, though this represents a two-point decrease from last week and a nine-point decrease from two weeks ago. This week’s poll finds 44% approving of his overall job performance (no change) against 36% disapproving (up 2%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also decreased slightly since last week, with this week’s poll finding it at +24% (down 3%). 44% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 20% disapprove (up 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -11%, a one-point increase from last week. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (no change) while 24% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 34% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 47% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a three-point decrease from last week. Conversely, 26% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson, a two-point increase from last week.
More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (47% to 28%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (47% to 25%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (46% to 29%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (47% to 23%).
Keir Starmer only leads when it comes to best embodying the description of being ‘in good physical and mental health’ (37% to 32%).
Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more respondents think Boris Johnson (42%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (28%).
Rishi Sunak holds a 15% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, a decrease of 1% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 43% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 28% who think Keir Starmer would be.