Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 6%, three points lower as in last Thursday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 20-21 July in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 40% (-4)

Conservative 34% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)

Green 5% (–)

Scottish National Party 4% (+1)

Reform UK 3% (–)

Plaid Cymru 0% (–)

Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 84% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 65% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote Conservative again.

Yesterday’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (64%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (58%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (63%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (52%). Respondents also select immigration (26%), taxation (25%), and education (22%).

A plurality (23%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 22% expect a Conservative Party majority, 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating is -32% in this week’s poll, five points higher than last Sunday (17 July). Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (+1), and 50% find the Government incompetent (-4).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -19%, up one point from our poll last Thursday. Yesterday’s poll finds 50% disapproving of his overall job performance (-1), against 31% approving (–).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -7%, seven points lower than on Thursday last week. 27% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (-4), while 34% disapprove (+3).

Keir Starmer (42%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (32%, -1) by ten points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.

Finally, Keir Starmer (38%, -1) leads Liz Truss (33%, (-1) by a narrower margin of five points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.