Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 7%, a six-point decrease to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 17 January in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 41% (-2)

Conservative 34% (+4)

Liberal Democrat 11% (+2)

Green 5% (-2)

Scottish National Party 5% (+1)

Reform UK 3% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by five points. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (down 1%), including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 6%) and 8% of those who voted Labour (up 2%).

Today’s sample has 58% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (up 4%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (71%, up 8%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted Labour (64%, up 4%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (58%), the economy (45%), education (26%), immigration (24%), and the environment (22%).

For the second time since we began asking this question in July 2021, a slight plurality (24%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (down 3%). 22% expect a Conservative majority (up 2%), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 1%), and 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government (no change). 43% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 6%), while 41% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 7%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -33% in this week’s poll, increasing by four points from last week’s lowest net competency rating we had recorded to date. Altogether, 20% find the Government competent (up 3%), 53% find the Government incompetent (down 1%), and 21% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 1%).

At -27%, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has increased by four points this week, after we recorded a new lowest net approval rating for Johnson last week. This week’s poll finds 54% disapproving of his overall job performance (down 2%), against 27% approving (up 2%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +17%, representing a one-point decrease compared to last week. 42% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 25% disapprove (no change).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has fallen by two points to -2%, returning back to negative territory after we recorded Starmer’s highest net approval rating since April 2021 last week. 33% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 3%), while 31% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 30% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 3%).

For the third week in a row, Keir Starmer leads over Boris Johnson in terms of who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment: 39% think Starmer (down 3%) and 33% think Johnson (up 4%) would be the better Prime Minister.

When respondents are asked whether it is Keir Starmer or Boris Johnson who best embodies a variety of leadership characteristics, Johnson enjoys a marginal lead in best embodying the trait ‘knows how to get things done’ (34% to 33%), while equal proportions believe each leader ‘stands up for the interests of the UK’ (35% to 35%).

But in all remaining characteristics on which we poll, Starmer prevails over Johnson, including substantial leads when it comes to best embodying traits like ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (46% to 22%), ‘cares about people like me’ (41% to 23%), and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (42% to 24%). Starmer has also maintained the slight leads in best embodying ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (35% to 34%) and ‘can build a strong economy’ (37% to 35%) that we recorded for the first time last week.

Pluralities of respondents continue to say they don’t know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (47%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (46%), or ‘is creative’ (46%).

Further, in a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 41% say Rishi Sunak (down 1%) and 28% say Boris Johnson (up 4%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment. Among 2019 Conservative voters, meanwhile, 48% say Johnson (up 7%) and 36% say Sunak (down 4%) would be better.

Rishi Sunak holds a two-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 36% who think Starmer would be (down 1%).