Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 8%, the same lead as last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 17 April in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 34% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
Reform UK 4% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Other 0% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party also leads by 8%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (up 1%), including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (down 2%) and 8% of those who voted Labour (up 2%). Altogether, 83% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 64% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote the same way.
This week’s sample has 44% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 3%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (58%, down 4%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (48%, down 4%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
The economy (57%, up 2%) is ahead of healthcare (54%, down 2%) as the issue that the most respondents consider likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents also select education (28%, down 6%), taxation (27%, no change), immigration (23%, no change), and housing (22%, down 3%).
For the second time since 21 February, before the invasion of Ukraine, a plurality (29%, up 1%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 22% expect a Conservative Party majority (down 3%), 15% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 1%), and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 1%). 42% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 5%), while 51% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (down 6%).
The Government’s net competency rating is -33% in this week’s poll, decreasing by 3 points since last week. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (down 1%), 51% find the Government incompetent (up 2%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 1%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -22%, decreasing by 1 point in the past week. This week’s poll finds 51% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 2%), against 29% approving (up 1%).
For the fourth time in our polling, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -17%. 26% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (no change), while 43% disapprove (down 1%).
Keir Starmer sees a net even approval rating. 29% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 4%), while 29% disapprove (down 1%). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 1%).
Keir Starmer (40%, up 1%) leads Boris Johnson (32%, down 1%) by 8% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
Boris Johnson only leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 30%) / ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (38% to 34%).
In all other categories, Keir Starmer leads Boris Johnson.
However, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is creative’ (46%), ‘tells the truth’ (45%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (44%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (41%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 23% say Rishi Sunak (up 1%) and 33% say Boris Johnson (down 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 44% say they don’t know (up 2%)—the highest figure to say they don’t know to date.
Keir Starmer is now significantly ahead of Rishi Sunak on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 27% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 44% who think Starmer would be (up 3%).