Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 33%, three points lower as in our most recent poll on Thursday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 19 October in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 54% (-1)
Conservative 21% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 28%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 15% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 22% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 87% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 43% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 55% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (66%) are more likely than those who voted Conservative (59%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
71% of British voters, the highest figure we’ve recorded to date, cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (57%). Respondents also select education (28%), taxation (26%), and immigration (21%).
A large plurality (46%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. Just 16% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government, and 10% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -64% this week—a record low in our polling—down 4 points from last Sunday. Altogether, only 8% find the Government competent (+1), and 72% find the Government incompetent (+5).
Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of -77%, down 12 points from our poll last Thursday, and a new record low approval rating for a sitting Prime Minister. Yesterday’s poll finds only 6% approving of her overall job performance (-4), against 83% disapproving (+8).
Among 2019 Conservative voters, 82% disapprove of Liz Truss’s job performance as Prime Minister. Only 7% approve. Her net approval rating with 2019 Conservative voters stands at -75%, down 12 points since Thursday’s poll.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +4%, down three points from Thursday last week. 33% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-3), while 29% disapprove (–).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -21%, down 12 points since Thursday last week. Overall, 40% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+7), and 19% approve (-5).
And finally, Keir Starmer (59%, +1) leads Liz Truss (8%, -5) by 51 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment—larger than any lead Starmer had held over Boris Johnson before Johnson resigned. Among 2019 Conservative voters, Starmer (45%, +2) leads Truss (14%, -8) by 31 points on who would be the better Prime Minister.