Latest GB Voting Intention (22 May 2022)

May 23, 2022
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 6%, the same lead as in last week Wednesday’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 18 May in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 39% (–)

Conservative 33% (–)

Liberal Democrat 12% (–)

Green 5% (+1)

Scottish National Party 4% (–)

Reform UK 4% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (+1), including 15% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (+2) and 4% of those who voted Labour (-3). Altogether, 87% of those who voted Labour in 2019 say they would vote Labour again, while 64% of those who voted Conservative say they would vote the same way.

This week’s sample has 46% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (-3). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (60%, -5) are more likely than those who voted Labour (48%, -6) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

The economy (56%) ranks as the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, slightly ahead of healthcare (51%). Respondents also select education (25%), taxation (24%), immigration (23%), and housing (23%).

A plurality (25%, +1) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. 19% expect a Conservative Party majority (-1), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (–), and 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government (-1). 37% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (–), while 48% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (-1).

The Government’s net competency rating is -31% in this week’s poll, two points higher than last week. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (+1), 49% find the Government incompetent (-1), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (-2).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -20%, increasing by 1 point since Wednesday. Yesterday’s poll finds 49% disapproving of his overall job performance (-1), against 29% approving (–).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating is negative, standing at -17%. 26% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (–), while 43% disapprove (+1).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is also negative, standing at -7%. 27% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (+3), while 34% disapprove (-1). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (-2).

Keir Starmer (36%, -4) narrowly leads Boris Johnson (34%, +1) by 2% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

Boris Johnson leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 30%) and ‘can lead the UK out of the coronavirus pandemic’ (37% to 31%), as well as the characteristics ‘knows how to get things done’ (34% to 32%) and ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (37% to 33%). 

In all other categories, Keir Starmer leads Boris Johnson.

However, pluralities say they don’t know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (49%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (49%), ‘is creative’ (48%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (42%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 24% say Rishi Sunak (-4) and 31% say Boris Johnson (–) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 45% say they don’t know (+5).

Keir Starmer stands ahead of Rishi Sunak on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 30% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (-2), against 36% who think Starmer would be (-5).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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