Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 6%—a decrease of 1% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 42% (-1)
Labour 36% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Reform UK 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 10% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019, 7% of those who voted Labour, and 10% of those who voted Liberal Democrat.
This week’s sample had 45% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, a 3% decrease since last week, and a 9% decrease since two weeks ago. This figure is the lowest we have recorded nationally in the past year, but remains plausible given that a General Election is likely to be three years away.
Those who voted Conservative in 2019 were more likely to say they were ‘certain to vote’ (62%) than those who had voted for Labour in 2019 (46%). However, 2019 Conservative voters are 9% less likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than last week, whereas 2019 Labour voters are only 1% less likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ compared to the previous week. Notwithstanding the small change among Labour voters this week, we have still recorded a 23% reduction in certainty to vote among 2019 Labour voters in the past three weeks. As it stands, the gap between Conservative and Labour certainty to vote is currently at 16%
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next election have changed slightly: 42% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (up 3% from last week) against 28% who think Labour (down 3%). These figures essentially constitute a reversal of last week’s results. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 are significantly more confident of a Conservative victory (75%) than those who voted for Labour in 2019 are confident of a Labour victory (59%).
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -3% in this week’s poll, a 1% improvement since last week, but still 6% lower than two weeks ago, when the Government secured a positive competency rating for the first time in our polling. Altogether, 32% find the Government incompetent (down 2%) and 29% find the Government competent (down 1%). 28% find the Government neither incompetent nor incompetent (up 3%).
For the seventh week in a row, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is positive––this time at +18%, a 5% increase since last week. This week’s poll finds 47% approving of his overall job performance, against 29% disapproving.
Following the Budget announcement three weeks ago, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has once again fallen slightly, with this week’s poll finding it at +24% (down 2%). 44% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance, while 20% disapprove. Overall, the Chancellor’s approval rating remains comfortably high.
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stand at +9%, an increase of 2% since last week. 32% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance since becoming Leader of the Labour Party, while 23% disapprove. A plurality (38%) of members of the public neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance.
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 50% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, an increase of 2% from last week. Meanwhile, 26% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.
In terms of specific attributes of each leader, Boris Johnson continues to lead Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (50% to 28%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (47% to 29%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (48% to 31%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (48% to 25%). For the third week in a row, Boris Johnson holds a lead against Keir Starmer as best embodying someone who ‘cares about people like me’ (40% to 32%).
Until two weeks ago, Keir Starmer held a lead against Boris Johnson as the person who best embodied the description ‘represents change.’ Last week, the public are almost evenly divided, with 37% favouring Boris Johnson and 36% favouring Keir Starmer. This week, Johnson has now taken a clear lead over Starmer on being the leader who ‘represents change’ (43% to 34%).
Keir Starmer continues to lead only when it comes to best embodying the description ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (39% to 34%).
Despite the Chancellor consistently scoring a higher net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more members of the public think Boris Johnson (49%) would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (27%). Boris Johnson’s lead stands at +22%, an increase of 9% since last week.
Rishi Sunak holds an 7% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, an increase of 1% since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 39% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 32% who think Keir Starmer would be.