Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 22%, two points more than in our most recent poll released on Monday last week. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 15 January in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 48% (+1)
Conservative 26% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Reform UK 6% (–)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Green 4% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 14% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 88% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 53% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
63% of British voters cite healthcare as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of the economy (60%). This is the first-time since 15 May last year that healthcare has been the most commonly cited issue Britons say would determine how they would vote in a General Election. Respondents also select immigration (29%), education (27%), and taxation (22%).
A plurality (38%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government. Just 17% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 11% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -34% this week, down three points from last Sunday. Altogether, 16% find the Government competent (-1), and 50% find the Government incompetent (+2).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -15%, down five points from our poll last Sunday, and the lowest approval rating he has recorded since becoming Prime Minister in October. Yesterday’s poll finds 25% approving of his overall job performance (-3) against 40% (+2) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +7%, up one point from last week. 32% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-3), while 25% disapprove (-4).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -15%, down four points since last Sunday. Overall, 34% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (–), and 19% approve (-4).
And finally, Keir Starmer (40%, +3) leads Rishi Sunak (35%, -2) by five on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.