Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Conservative Party leading by 11%—an increase of 1% from last week’s poll and an increase of 4% from our poll two weeks ago. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from last week in parentheses) are as follows:
Conservative 44% (–)
Labour 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Green 4% (-1)
Reform UK 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Other 2% (+1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Conservatives lead by 9%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 12% of the sample said they do not know how they would vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 7% of those who voted Labour.
This week’s sample had 59% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held. Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (72%) are more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted for Labour in 2019 (62%).
Predictions as to who is most likely to win the highest number of seats in the next General Election have changed slightly in the past week: 43% expect the Conservative Party to win the highest number of seats (down 5%) against 23% who think Labour (up 1%). 77% of 2019 Conservative voters are confident of a Conservative victory (down 2%), whereas 61% of 2019 Labour voters are confident of a Labour victory (up 5%).
The Government’s Net Competency Rating stands at -7% in this week’s poll, a 2% decrease from last week. Altogether, 30% find the Government competent (down 1%), 37% find the Government incompetent (up 1%), and 26% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 1%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands this time at +3%, a four-point decrease from last week. This week’s poll finds 41% approving of his overall job performance (down 2%) against 38% disapproving (up 2%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has not changed substantially, with this week’s poll finding it at +24% (down 3%). 44% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 2%), while 20% disapprove (up 1%).
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at -12%, a six-point decrease from last week. 37% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (up 6%), while 25% approve (no change). Meanwhile, 34% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 3%).
Between Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, 46% say they think Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment than Keir Starmer, a figure which is only 1% lower than last week. Conversely, 26% think Keir Starmer would be the better Prime Minister when compared to Boris Johnson.
More specifically, Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the following descriptions: ‘can build a strong economy’ (47% to 27%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (44% to 27%), ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (46% to 29%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (43% to 25%).
Keir Starmer leads when it comes to best embodying the description of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (39% to 30%).
Although the Chancellor has a considerably more favourable net approval rating compared to the Prime Minister, more respondents think Boris Johnson (40%, up 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment than think Rishi Sunak (31%, no change).
Rishi Sunak holds a 14% lead over Keir Starmer for the best Prime Minister at this moment, with no change since last week. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 42% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom against 28% who think Keir Starmer would be.