Latest GB Voting Intention (21 January 2024)

January 22, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading by 23%, four points more than in our previous poll released on Monday last week

At 22%, this poll marks the Conservative Party’s lowest vote share in our polling since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. The party’s previous low during Sunak’s time as Prime Minister was 23%, recorded on the very day that he became Prime Minister.

Since the 2019 General Election, the Conservative Party has reached a lower vote share in our polling on only three occasions, all during the final week of Liz Truss’ tenure as Prime Minister—20% on 16 October 2022, 19% on 19 October 2022, and 21% on 23 October 2022.

Labour’s lead in today’s poll is also their largest lead in our polling since 5 March 2023.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 14 January in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 45% (+1)
Conservative 22% (-3)
Reform UK 12% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
Other 2% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 19%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 13% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour. 

Only 47% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—just one point more than the lowest percentage recorded since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister (46%), also recorded on the very day that he became Prime Minister.

For context, the lowest percentages of 2019 Conservative voters to say they would vote Conservative again in our polling to date are 37% (16 October 2022), 38% (19 October 2022)—both of those recorded just prior to Liz Truss’ announcement that she would resign as Prime Minister—and 43% (23 October 2022).

19% of 2019 Conservative voters in this week’s poll say they would vote for Labour if a General Election were held tomorrow, while 18% would vote for Reform UK—a record high in our polling.

58% of British voters cite the economy and 54% cite healthcare as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election. Respondents also select immigration (35%), education (24%), and taxation (22%).

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -35% this week. Altogether, 16% find the Government competent (-4), while 51% find the Government incompetent (+3).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -21%, down six points from last week’s poll. This week’s poll finds 27% approving of his overall job performance (-2) against 48% (+4) disapproving—the highest percentage to say they disapprove of Rishi Sunak’s performance as either Prime Minister or Chancellor to date.

Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating ties his second lowest in our polling, which includes his time as Chancellor of the Exchequer. His lowest ever of -22% was recorded on 18 February 2023 (as Prime Minister).

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +11%, the same as last week. 38% approve of Starmer’s job performance (–), while 27% disapprove (–).

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -8%, down one point from our previous poll. Overall, 31% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (-1) and 23% approve (-2). 

And finally, Keir Starmer (41%, –) leads Rishi Sunak (29%, -2) by 13 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. 

Rishi Sunak’s 29% on this question ties his third lowest in our polling to date. Previous lows of 28% were recorded on 19 November 2023, 18 September 2023, and 17 April 2022, while his lowest ever of 27% was recorded on 24 April 2022 and 1 May 2022.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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