Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 6%, a one-point increase to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 14 February in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 39% (+1)

Conservative 33% (–)

Liberal Democrat 11% (–)

Green 7% (+1)

Scottish National Party 5% (+1)

Reform UK 4% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (–)

Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 5%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 17% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote (up 4%), including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 1%) and 7% of those who voted Labour (up 1%).

Today’s sample has 50% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (down 4%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (63%, up 4%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (53%, down 12%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (57%), the economy (46%), education (34%), immigration (24%), housing (23%), and taxation (23%).

A marginal plurality (24%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (no change), while 23% think a Conservative Party majority would be the most likely outcome (down 1%). 16% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (down 2%) and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government (down 1%). 44% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 5%), while 52% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (up 3%).

The Government’s net competency rating is -35% in this week’s poll, decreasing six points since last week. Altogether, 17% find the Government competent (down 3%), 52% find the Government incompetent (up 3%), and 23% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (down 1%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating has fallen eight points to -31%, a figure which ties for the lowest net rating we have recorded for Johnson. This week’s poll finds 56% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 3%), against 25% approving (down 5%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +4%, representing a six-point decrease from last week and Sunak’s lowest-ever net rating we have recorded to date. 36% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 4%), while 32% disapprove (up 2%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has increased four points to -1% this week. 31% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 3%), while 30% approve (up 1%). Meanwhile, 32% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (up 1%).

Keir Starmer continues to lead over Boris Johnson in terms of who would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment: 37% think Starmer (down 2%) and 29% think Johnson (down 6%) would be the better Prime Minister.

Keir Starmer has regained his lead over Boris Johnson as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can build a strong economy’ (37% to 32%), ‘knows how to get things done’ (35% to 30%), and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (35% to 32%).

In fact, Starmer prevails over Johnson in best embodying all of the various leadership characteristics on which we poll, including significant leads when it comes to best embodying traits like ‘is in good physical and mental health’ (46% to 19%), ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (43% to 21%), and ‘cares about people like me’ (41% to 20%).

On the question of who best embodies ‘is a strong leader,’ respondents are divided between saying Starmer (37%) and saying they don’t know (37%), while 26% say Johnson. Meanwhile, pluralities continue to indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘tells the truth’ (48%), ‘is creative’ (47%), or ‘prioritises the environment’ (46%).

In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 40% say Rishi Sunak (down 1%) and 28% say Boris Johnson (no change) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment. Among 2019 Conservative voters, 41% say Johnson (down 7%) and 39% say Sunak (up 4%) would be better.

For the second time since we began tracking this question in June 2020, a plurality says Keir Starmer, rather than Rishi Sunak, would be the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Starmer would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 34% who think Sunak would be (down 4%).

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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