Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 12%, 5 points higher as in last Monday’s poll, and the largest lead for Labour over the Conservative Party in our polling since the day of Boris Johnson’s resignation. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 14 August in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 43% (+2)
Conservative 31% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 5% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 10%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 18% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 23% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019—a 7% increase from last week’s poll—and 6% of those who voted Labour. Altogether, 81% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while just 58% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 47% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (57%) are very slightly more likely than those who voted Conservative (55%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
After weeks of intense media focus on rising energy bills and the cost-of-living crisis, the economy (67%) continues to be the most cited important issue respondents say would determine how they would vote, ahead of healthcare (56%). This latest figure is the highest we have recorded for the economy. Respondents also select education (30%), taxation (23%), and immigration (22%).
A plurality (28%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months, while 22% expect a Conservative Party majority. A further 15% expect a Conservative-led minority Government, and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating is -36% in this week’s poll, up 5 points from last Sunday’s low of -41%. Altogether, only 16% find the Government competent (+3), and 52% find the Government incompetent (-2).
Outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -18%, up two points from our poll last Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 47% disapproving of his overall job performance (-4), against 29% approving (-2).
After unveiling his plan to tackle rising energy bills last week, Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is up three points from last Sunday but remains in negative territory at -1%. 29% approve of Starmer’s job performance (–), while 30% disapprove (-3).
When asked to choose which of Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, Starmer (41%, –) leads Sunak (34%, –) by a margin of 7 points.
And finally, regaining a lead he lost in our polling in late July, Keir Starmer (36%, -1) leads Liz Truss (35%, -6) by 1 point on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.