Latest GB Voting Intention (21-24 June 2024)

June 24, 2024
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | Conservative Party | GB Politics | Keir Starmer | Labour Party | Rishi Sunak | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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With just ten days to go until polling day in the UK General Election, Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest national Westminster voting intention poll finds the Labour Party leading Reform by 23%, unchanged from our previous poll released last Thursday

After overtaking the Conservatives in our previous poll, Reform UK remains in second place, one point ahead of the Conservative Party. With 19%, the party maintains its joint-highest ever vote share in our polling.

The Conservatives’ vote share in this poll (18%) is unchanged and ties the lowest ever in our polling in this Parliament and is one point lower than their worst under Liz Truss, 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before the former Prime Minister announced her resignation.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 19-20 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 42% (–)
Reform UK 19% (–)
Conservative 18% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

When those who say they do not know how they will vote in the General Election are included, the Labour Party leads Reform by 21%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 10% of the sample say they do not know how they will vote, including 9% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.

Altogether, 79% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they will vote Labour again. 

Only 35% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will now vote Conservative againthe lowest percentage we’ve ever recorded, two points lower than the previous low of 37% (recorded on 16 October 20225-6 June this year, and, most recently, last Thursday.)

28% of 2019 Conservative voters now say they will vote for Reform UK—just one point below the highest ever figure in our polling—while 19% will vote for Labour.

When broken down by gender (and still including undecided voters), Labour enjoys an 18-point lead over the Conservatives among men and a 26-point lead among women.

36% of men say they will vote for Labour, while more men say that they will vote for Reform UK (20%) than say they will vote Conservative (18%).

40% of women say they will vote for Labour. 14% of women say they will vote Conservative, while 13% say they will vote Reform.

Support for Reform UK and for the Conservatives is higher among men (38% combined) than it is among women (27% combined). Notably, women remain six points more likely to be undecided about how they would vote if a General Election were held tomorrow (13%) than men are (7%).

Breaking down our sample by age, Labour holds a lead over the Conservatives among every age group.

Labour’s margin over the Conservatives ranges from 36 points among those aged 18-24 (44% vs 8%) to eight points with those aged over 65 (31% vs 23%).

Reform UK attracts more support than the Conservatives among voters aged 18-24 (15% to 8%), 45-54 (18% to 11%), and 55-64 (22% to 18%), while also attracting the support of almost one-fifth (19%) of voters aged over 65.

Among voters aged 18-24, the Conservatives are in fifth place.

57% of British voters cite the economy as among the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (56%). Respondents also select immigration (39%), housing (24%), and policing and crime (17%).

68% of respondents believe a Labour Party government will be the result of the General Election on 4 July, compared to only 16% who believe the election will result in a Conservative Party government.

When the two parties are pitted against each other on the issues, Labour are more frequently trusted than the Conservatives on every policy issue listed.

Labour holds leads of more than 25 points over the Conservatives when voters are asked who they trust the most to support the NHS (43% to 15%) and to tackle poverty (42% to 15%).

Labour is also more trusted by British voters than the Conservatives to manage the economy (38% to 23%) and to handle immigration (33% to 18%).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -23%, up four points from his previous rating. Our latest poll finds 29% approving of his overall job performance (+4) against 52% (–) disapproving.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +11%, unchanged from our previous poll. 41% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+1), while 30% disapprove (+1).

Finally, Keir Starmer (49%, +1) leads Rishi Sunak (24%, -1) by 25 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment

On this question, this latest result is the highest ever percentage to ever say Keir Starmer and the lowest ever percentage of respondents to say Rishi Sunak in our polling. This latest result therefore represents the widest lead Starmer has ever held over Sunak,

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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