Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 5%, an increase of 2% from last week’s poll. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 13 March in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 40% (+1)
Conservative 35% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
Green 7% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 2% (-2)
Plaid Cymru 0% (-1)
Other 1% (-1)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 3%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 16% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote (up 3%), including 16% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 (up 3%) and 6% of those who voted Labour (down 1%).
This week’s sample has 57% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow (up 3%). Those who voted Conservative in 2019 (69%, up 1%) are more likely than those who voted Labour (57%, down 1%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
Healthcare (55%, up 3%) and the economy (55%, up 6%) are tied as the issue that the most respondents consider likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents also select education (26%, no change), immigration (23%, down 3%), taxation (22%, down 2%), housing (20%, down 2%), and the environment (20%, up 1%).
A plurality (27%) of respondents believe a Conservative Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months (no change). 24% expect a Labour Party majority (up 1%), 17% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 1%), and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government (no change). 50% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (up 1%), while 47% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (no change).
The Government’s net competency rating is -27% in this week’s poll, increasing by 1 point since last week. Altogether, 21% find the Government competent (no change), 48% find the Government incompetent (down 1%), and 24% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 1%).
Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives a net approval rating of -15%, decreasing by 3 points in the past week. This week’s poll finds 47% disapproving of his overall job performance (up 1%), against 32% approving (down 2%).
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s net approval rating stands at +3%, also dropping 3 points in the past week. 36% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 1%), while 33% disapprove (up 2%).
After seeing his first positive net approval rating since 19 April 2021 last week, Keir Starmer now sees a neutral net approval rating. 31% approve of Keir Starmer’s job performance (down 1%), while 31% disapprove (up 1%). Meanwhile, 30% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (down 1%).
Boris Johnson’s (38%, down 1%) lead over Keir Starmer (36%, no change) has narrowed slightly in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
Boris Johnson leads over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the characteristics ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (38% to 29%), ‘can build a strong economy’ (37% to 35%), and ‘knows how to get things done’ (36% to 31%).
A reversal from last week, Boris Johnson is also now seen as best embodying the traits ‘can work with foreign leaders’ (38% to 35%) and ‘can bring British people together’ (38% to 37%).
Meanwhile, pluralities indicate they don’t know which of the two ‘is a strong leader’ (35%), ‘is creative’ (46%), ‘tells the truth’ (48%), ‘prioritises the environment’ (43%), or ‘has the better foreign policy strategy’ (41%).
In a contest between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the current Prime Minister, 33% say Rishi Sunak (no change) and 35% say Boris Johnson (up 1%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, while a further 32% say they don’t know (no change). These results represent the second time that Johnson has led, however narrowly, over Sunak in this respect since 21 November. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, Johnson leads 58% to 26%.
Rishi Sunak now ties Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% think Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (no change), against 37% who think Starmer would be (up 2%).