Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 8%, a three-point increase to their lead over the Conservatives in last week’s poll. This latest poll’s results again mark Labour’s largest lead since we began tracking voting intention following the 2019 General Election, alongside the lowest voting intention result we have recorded for the Conservative Party in the same time frame. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 13 December in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 39% (+2)

Conservative 31% (-1)

Liberal Democrat 13% (+2)

Green 6% (-1)

Reform UK 5% (-2)

Scottish National Party 5% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)

Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 7%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 14% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including a significant 19% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 4% of those who voted Labour.

Today’s sample has 54% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (61%) are now slightly more likely to say they are ‘certain to vote’ than those who voted Conservative in 2019 (59%).

Healthcare remains the issue respondents consider most likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents select healthcare (50%), the economy (42%), coronavirus restrictions (29%), immigration (29%), the environment (23%), and education (22%).

If a General Election were to take place in the next six months, 23% of respondents expect the outcome to be a Conservative Party majority (down 4%). 22% expect a Labour majority (no change), 19% expect a Conservative-led minority Government (up 2%), and 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government (up 1%). 46% of 2019 Conservative Party voters think the Conservatives would achieve a majority (down 5%), whereas 49% of 2019 Labour voters expect that Labour would win a majority (no change).

The Government’s net competency rating is -30% in this week’s poll, representing a new lowest net competency rating we have recorded since we began tracking this question in August 2020. Altogether, 19% find the Government competent (down 1%), 49% find the Government incompetent (no change), and 27% find the Government neither competent nor incompetent (up 3%).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s net approval rating stands at -29%, a figure which has decreased seven points to a new lowest net approval rating we have recorded for Johnson. This week’s poll finds 55% disapproving (up 4%) of his overall job performance, against 26% approving (down 3%).

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of +11%, representing a four-point decrease compared to last week and a new lowest net approval rating for him. 38% say they approve of Rishi Sunak’s job performance (down 3%), while 27% disapprove (up 1%).

Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has not changed in the past week, still standing at -8%. 35% disapprove of Keir Starmer’s job performance (no change), while 27% approve (no change). Meanwhile, 33% neither approve nor disapprove of Starmer’s job performance (no change).

35% say they think Keir Starmer (no change) and 34% say they think Boris Johnson (no change) would be a better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom at this moment. Following on from last week, these results mark the second occasion Starmer is leading over Johnson in this regard since we began asking this question in June 2020.

Boris Johnson continues to lead over Keir Starmer as being the one who best embodies the descriptions ‘can build a strong economy’ (35% to 33%) and ‘can tackle the coronavirus pandemic’ (33% to 30%). His leads in these areas, however, are notably smaller than in previous polls.

For the first time we have recorded, Starmer leads over Johnson as the one who ‘stands up for the interests of the United Kingdom’ (36% to 34%). Keir Starmer also leads over Boris Johnson when it comes to best embodying the descriptions of ‘being in good physical and mental health’ (42% to 24%), ‘represents change’ (38% to 28%), and ‘is willing to work with other parties when possible’ (39% to 27%).

Meanwhile, pluralities of respondents say they do not know which of the two ‘is a strong leader’ (40%) or ‘knows how to get things done’ (36%).

When asked to assess whether Boris Johnson or Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham would be a better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, 35% think Boris Johnson would be the better Prime Minister (down 9% compared to one month ago), against 30% who think Andy Burnham would be (up 1%).

Comparing the current Prime Minister to London Mayor Sadiq Khan, 38% think Boris Johnson (down 8% compared to one month ago) and 24% think Sadiq Khan (up 4%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.

When it comes to Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Angela Rayner, 39% say Boris Johnson would be a better Prime Minister than her at this moment (down 8% from one month ago), in contrast to 23% who say Angela Rayner would be the better Prime Minister (up 3%).

Further, 36% say Rishi Sunak (down 1% compared to last week) and 27% say Boris Johnson (down 2%) would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment, the largest lead for Sunak over Johnson for better PM that we have recorded.

Rishi Sunak holds a four-point lead over Keir Starmer for the better Prime Minister at this moment. Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, 38% think Rishi Sunak would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom (down 1%), against 34% who think Keir Starmer would be (no change).