Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 28%, eleven points higher as in our most recent poll on 28-29 September, and the largest lead we’ve ever recorded for Labour over the Conservatives. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 28-29 September in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 52% (+6)
Conservative 24% (-5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+2)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 24%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 18% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 22% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 90% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 47% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the first time in our polling that this number has fallen below 50%.
Yesterday’s polling sample has 48% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (58%) are marginally more likely than those who voted Conservative (56%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’
70% of British voters, the highest figure we’ve recorded to date, cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (61%). Respondents also select education (31%), taxation (31%), housing (25%), and immigration (22%). Notably, virtually as many Labour voters cite the economy (73%) as cite healthcare (74%).
A large plurality (42%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. An additional 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government, marking this poll as the first time we have seen more than half the public predicting a Labour Government after the next General Election.
The Government receives a net competency rating is -45% this week, down a staggering 15 points from last Sunday. Altogether, only 12% find the Government competent (-6), tied for the lowest figure that we have recorded, and 57% find the Government incompetent (+9).
Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of -33%, lower than Boris Johnson’s lowest ever net approval rating (-31%). Yesterday’s poll finds only 18% approving of her overall job performance (-10), against 51% disapproving (+9).
Similarly, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s net approval rating stands at -30%, having dropped twelve percentage points since Thursday last week.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +6%, down three points from Wednesday last week. 32% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-3), while 26% disapprove (–).
And finally, Keir Starmer (43%, +2) leads Liz Truss (29%, -5) by 14 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment—larger than any lead Starmer had held over Boris Johnson before Johnson resigned.