Latest GB Voting Intention (2 October 2022)

October 3, 2022
R&WS Research Team
Approval Rating | GB Politics | UK Elections | Voting Intention

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Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 28%, eleven points higher as in our most recent poll on 28-29 September, and the largest lead we’ve ever recorded for Labour over the Conservatives. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 28-29 September in parentheses) are as follows: 

Labour 52% (+6)
Conservative 24% (-5)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
Green 5% (+1)
Scottish National Party 5% (+2)
Reform UK 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 24%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 18% of the sample says they do not know how they would vote, including 22% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 90% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while only 47% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again—the first time in our polling that this number has fallen below 50%.

Yesterday’s polling sample has 48% of respondents saying they would be ‘certain to vote’ if there were to be a General Election tomorrow. Those who voted Labour in 2019 (58%) are marginally more likely than those who voted Conservative (56%) to say they are ‘certain to vote.’

70% of British voters, the highest figure we’ve recorded to date, cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (61%). Respondents also select education (31%), taxation (31%), housing (25%), and immigration (22%). Notably, virtually as many Labour voters cite the economy (73%) as cite healthcare (74%).

A large plurality (42%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. An additional 10% expect a Labour-led minority Government, marking this poll as the first time we have seen more than half the public predicting a Labour Government after the next General Election.

The Government receives a net competency rating is -45% this week, down a staggering 15 points from last Sunday. Altogether, only 12% find the Government competent (-6), tied for the lowest figure that we have recorded, and 57% find the Government incompetent (+9).

Prime Minister Liz Truss receives a net approval rating of -33%, lower than Boris Johnson’s lowest ever net approval rating (-31%). Yesterday’s poll finds only 18% approving of her overall job performance (-10), against 51% disapproving (+9).

Similarly, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s net approval rating stands at -30%, having dropped twelve percentage points since Thursday last week.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +6%, down three points from Wednesday last week. 32% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-3), while 26% disapprove (–).

And finally, Keir Starmer (43%, +2) leads Liz Truss (29%, -5) by 14 points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment—larger than any lead Starmer had held over Boris Johnson before Johnson resigned.

To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter

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