Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest voting intention poll in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 17%, two points less than in our previous poll released on Monday last week, and the narrowest lead Labour has held over the Conservatives since 11 December. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 26 March in parentheses) are as follows:
Labour 45% (-1)
Conservative 28% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+2)
Reform UK 5% (-3)
Green 4% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
Other 2% (–)
When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 15%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 12% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 5% of those who voted Labour.
Altogether, 86% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 55% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.
62% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (59%). Respondents also select immigration (28%), education (24%), housing (18%), and taxation (18%).
A plurality (34%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 12% expect a Labour-led minority Government. 17% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 11% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.
The Government’s net competency rating stands at -28% this week, down three points from last Sunday. Altogether, 19% find the Government competent (-1), and 47% find the Government incompetent (+2).
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -11%, down three points from our poll last Sunday. Yesterday’s poll finds 31% approving of his overall job performance (-1) against 42% (+2) disapproving.
Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, up seven points from last week. 37% approve of Starmer’s job performance (+4), while 27% disapprove (-3).
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -12%, down four points since last Sunday. Overall, 36% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (+3), and 24% approve (-1).
And finally, Keir Starmer (38%, -1) leads Rishi Sunak (35%, -1) by three points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment.