Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ first voting intention poll in 2023 in Great Britain finds the Labour Party leading by 20%, up three points from our last poll on 11 December 2022. Altogether, the full numbers (with the changes from 11 December in parentheses) are as follows:

Labour 47% (+1)
Conservative 27% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
Reform UK 5% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
Green 3% (-2)
Other 1% (-1)

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by 17%. After weighting by likelihood to vote, 13% of the sample say they do not know how they would vote, including 11% of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and 6% of those who voted Labour. 

Altogether, 87% of those who voted Labour in the last General Election say they would vote Labour again, while 57% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again.

68% of British voters cite the economy as one of the three most important issues that would determine how they would vote in a General Election, ahead of healthcare (60%). Respondents also select immigration (30%), education (22%), and the environment (20%).

A plurality (38%) of respondents believe a Labour Party majority would be the most likely outcome if a General Election were held in the next six months. A further 13% expect a Labour-led minority Government. Just 14% expect a Conservative Party majority, while another 12% expect a Conservative-led minority Government.

The Government’s net competency rating stands at -27% this week, down one point from last December. Altogether, 18% find the Government competent (-1), and 45% find the Government incompetent (–).

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -4%, down one point from our final poll last year. Our latest poll finds 27% approving of his overall job performance (-3) against 31% (-2) disapproving. 

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating stands at +10%, the same as at the end of last year. 36% approve of Starmer’s job performance (-1), while 26% disapprove (-1). Starmer last held a negative net approval rating on 7 September.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s net approval rating stands at -9%, also the same as at the end of last year. Overall, 33% disapprove of Hunt’s performance as Chancellor (-2), and 24% approve (-2). 

And finally, Keir Starmer (36%, -3) trails Rishi Sunak (38%, +2) by two points on who would be the better Prime Minister at this moment, a slight reversal of where things stood in December 2022.